THE AUSTRALIAN OIL INDUSTRY — TWO YEARS OF FLOOD BEFORE THE PERMANENT DROUGHT

Abstract

World oil intensities have undergone a fundamental change since 1976, when gross domestic product growth outstripped oil consumption for the first time. World oil demand has fallen each year since 1979 irrespective of economic conditions.

International supply management is the only way of containing oil price falls. In the longer term, non-OPEC production will peak by the end of this decade because there have been no major developments since the mid-1970's. Prices are likely to rise again as supply from non-OPEC countries falls, allowing OPEC to reassert market control.

Australia has achieved 100 per cent self-sufficiency in crude oil, but a substantial increase in exploration activity is required if a major fall in self-sufficiency is to be averted after Bass Strait peaks in 1987. Browse Basin (Timor Sea) disappointments indicate that while there will be good production from Jabiru and perhaps Challis, these will not replace the declining Mackerel, Halibut, and Kingfish fields in Bass Strait.

The Cooper/Eromanga Basin, while highly prospective, will never produce the quantities needed to replace Bass Strait. Jackson's reserves are estimated at about 45 million barrels. By comparison, Mackerel and Halibut together will produce 58 million barrels in 1985-86 alone.

If oil is not found the balance of payments will suffer badly. Each percentage point drop in self sufficiency will cost Australia $85 million or nearly 0.5 per cent of exports. If domestic production falls to 470 000 barrels per day by 1990, imports of crude oil will cost $2 billion in 1985 dollars (assuming flat oil prices). Expressed in another way, 6 per cent of Australia's exports will be required to pay for the incremental drop in self-sufficiency by 1990.

In 1984-85 the Government took in $4.26 billion from the crude oil levy, almost exclusively from Bass Strait. In 1985-86 the Government will receive $4.7 billion. This represents 8.7 per cent of Government taxation revenue, and 8 per cent of total Government receipts. By 1990, the levy from Bass Strait will fall by 45 per cent (assuming a constant oil price). By 1995 the revenue will be 90 per cent less than 1985-86, posing a major budgetary funding problem.