REVIEW OF METHODS FOR FORECASTING ENERGY BALANCES

Abstract

The level of exploration is influenced by expectations concerning future energy demand and supply balances and prices.

It is the task of the forecaster to quantify expectations. The process involves prediction of events both entirely beyond the control and somewhat within the control of the forecaster.

Past results of forecast accuracies leave considerable scope for improving methods of prediction.

Techniques like scenario and model building are considered helpful in improving forecasts of events beyond our control, while the prediction of events somewhat within our control can be improved by realising the economic predicament of the forecasting entity. This realisation can be of importance not only for refining predictive accuracy but also for contributing to the existence of a successful exploration industry.