ANALYSING THE PRESENT TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

Abstract

It is widely believed that the demand for natural resources will grow exponentially and many authors, despite their scientific background use this assumption as a basis for predicting future growth patterns. Examination of the forces which control demand lead us to conclude that the rate of its increase in advanced countries will soon begin to decline. These forces- population, affluence of the population and technical advancement-are beginning to move in a direction so as to limit growth. In what can be assumed to be the most advanced nation, America, population growth is declining, the consumer is becoming saturated with goods so that growth in consumption per head of population is slowing, and technical advancement is leading to far more economic use of natural resources.

On the other side of the coin many available resource reserves are growing. Although the concept of finite resources cannot be argued, its application to the present situation in Australia is not valid. Experience has shown that the supply, i.e. reserves of natural resources is greatly increased by their exploitation. Even though total reserves remain the same, discovered reserves, i.e. usable reserves continually grow. Over the past 15 years export of all of Australia's major mineral resources has been allowed and yet despite this the life expectancy of each of these resources has increased dramatically. Also, exploitation of natural resources leads to more efficient methods of extraction, thus allowing massive amounts of low grade reserves to be classified as economic. Investigation of these phenomena indicates that it is an overly simplistic approach to plan for the conservation of resources based on proven reserves only, for often the potential of an area far exceeds those reserves that have already been discovered and this potential can only be realised if an incentive is provided for the explorer.

The energy crisis. Shortages of fuel. The Club of Rome. Exhaustion of resources. Population explosion. Shortages. Exponential growth. Doomsday.