The impact of new supply from the Perth Basin on the supply of natural gas in Western Australia
Simon Molyneux A * , Frank Glass A , Martin Storey A , Hong Feng Wu A and William Walton AA Molyneux Advisors, 45 Ventnor Avenue, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia.
The APPEA Journal 62 S58-S62 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ21042
Accepted: 18 March 2022 Published: 13 May 2022
© 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of APPEA.
Abstract
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts demand for natural gas (gas) in Western Australia will remain steady through the 2020s, but that the local production will drop below anticipated demand in the mid-2020s and again from 2030 onwards. If this situation eventuates, lack of gas production will impact the competitiveness of WA’s energy-consuming industries. This paper demonstrates that the Perth Basin has the potential to meet this supply–demand gap and augment existing sources of gas over the next 20+ years. A subsurface-led assessment of the Perth Basin’s Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources incorporating all recent exploration well results shows that the unrisked resource potential of the Perth Basin is 7052 bcfe (7.475 PJ)1 with production potential up to 1100 TJ/day. The basis for these estimates will be illustrated with examples, alongside a discussion of the variables that affect the resource assessment, the impact of capacity constraints on the timing of development of Perth Basin gas, and the dynamics of the WA gas market.
Keywords: development, domestic gas, exploration, gas, gas supply, LNG, Perth Basin, pipeline, production, Western Australia.
Simon Molyneux is the Principal Geoscientist and Managing Director of Molyneux Advisors. Simon has 25 years of experience acquired during his time at Santos, Talisman Energy, Shell and as a consultant. |
Frank Glass is an exploration geoscientist with over 30 years of experience working on regional geological evaluations, individual prospect assessments and alternative methods to describe the risk and value properties of identified hydrocarbon leads and prospects. |
Martin Storey is a practicing Geoscientist, Petrophysicist and well data expert with over 30 years of international oilfield experience with Schlumberger, Shell, and National and International Oil Companies. He has been an independent petrophysical consultant for the past two decades. |
Hong Feng Wu is the Principal Reservoir Engineer and Director of Molyneux Advisors. He comes with over 24 years of experience gained at Shell, BP, CNOOC and as a consultant. |
William Walton is a highly experienced oil and gas professional specialising in asset maturation, development, resource assessment, assurance and reporting. He draws on over 35 years of experience in delivering diverse projects as a consultant and employee at Shell and BP. |
References
AEMO (2021) 2021 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO). (Australian Energy Market Operator) Available at https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/gas/national_planning_and_forecasting/wa_gsoo/2021/wa-gas-statement-of-opportunities-gsoo-report.pdf?la=enGBB (2022) Gas Bulletin Board WA. (Gas Bulletin Board) Available at https://gbbwa.aemo.com.au/#home
SPE (2018) Petroleum Resource Management System – 2018 update. (Society of Petroleum Engineers) 57p. Available at https://www.spe.org/en/industry/petroleum-resources-management-system-2018/
