Radical disruption – renewables, technology and the arrival of ‘peak gas’

Abstract

Debate on the timing of peak oil has become mainstream, as shifting energy demand patterns are compounded by the accelerating threat from disruptive technology such as EVs. At the same time, natural gas demand is seen as a beneficiary of these changes – the much-vaunted transition fuel to a low carbon future. But what might happen to long-term gas demand when factors that could radically reshape energy markets become entrenched? Improvements in energy efficiency, growth in renewables, major advances in energy storage technologies and access to decarbonised electricity are now raising the prospect of ‘peak gas’.

In this paper, Wood Mackenzie presents an examination of the key uncertainties impacting the future of gas demand globally, including:

• How quickly can technologies such as batteries and storage be developed and what constraints might they face?

• Could environmental policy and falling costs mean we are currently underestimating the future growth in renewables – specifically wind and solar power?

• How are oil and gas companies responding to the challenges that lie ahead?

The impact of these developments will be critical for gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers as they assess the timing, returns and demand for future gas supply. Indeed, for Australian developers these uncertainties could be enough to stop multi-billion-dollar LNG projects taking final investment decisions as early as the 2020s. Wood Mackenzie argues that the time for companies to address peak gas is now – the dynamics of marginal change will likely mean markets will be reshaped sooner than the industry is currently prepared to acknowledge.