Introducing the Kerogen LNG Project Success Index
Vivek ChandraKerogen Consultants.
The APPEA Journal 53(2) 433-433 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ12044
Published: 2013
Abstract
As the number of future LNG projects—from those being constructed to speculative projects in early stages—grows globally, potential LNG buyers, project financiers, investors, partners, host governments, and contractors are struggling to evaluate which projects are more likely to be successful and thus deserving of their attention. Not all projects promoted by a particular company are of equal quality.
The author has developed an easy-to-use and easy-to-understand scoring system that is neutral, objective (as much as possible), quantitative, and adaptable based on about 30 criteria, grouped into four categories:
-
Upstream: including criteria such as 1P/3P reserves, NGL%, CO2%, access to reserves, distance to field.
-
Above ground: including host government support, terrorist/violent activity, native rights, taxation stability, political support, government reputation, labour productivity/availability, environmental sensitivity.
-
Technical: technology risk, contractor experience, infrastructure, and engineering stage.
-
Company and market: operator/partner experience, type of off-taker, buyer experience, partner alignment.
The scores can be weighted according to the audience priorities. Scoring represents a particular time and its score will change accordingly as a project progresses.
Most Australian LNG projects being constructed, designed, and proposed will be evaluated and ranked according to the scoring system above, with up-to-date scores at the time of APPEA 2013. In addition, it is expected that key projects in other countries (in East Africa, North America, East Mediterranean) will also be evaluated to compare their rankings with Australian projects.
Vivek Chandra is the principal of Kerogen Consultants, a boutique energy advisory firm providing LNG/gas commercialisation, project development, expert witness, and consultant services. He has more than 22 years of international experience including four years as the senior commercial executive with an Australian energy company with large gas assets, three years as the chief strategy officer of an energy investment company in the Middle East, and three years as the business manager of a large pipeline gas project in the Middle East. He has also served in various commercial roles within ARCO international oil and gas company in the US and technical roles within Schlumberger in southeast Asia and North America. He has worked on LNG as well as gas pipeline export projects, including the Alaska LNG export project and the Crux/Prelude FLNG project. He has a BSc (geophysical engineering) from the Colorado School of Mines, an MSc (petroleum energy management and policy) from the University of Pennsylvania, a petroleum economics graduate degree from the French Petroleum Institute, a master’s in commercial law from Deakin University, Australia, and he is now working on his PhD (international law) at Deakin University. He authored Fundamentals of natural gas-an international perspective, a bestselling hardcover book published by Pennwell, publishers of Oil and Gas Journal and other leading industry books and manuals. He is the course director of Natural gas and LNG dynamics, an intensive two-and-a-half-day executive course on gas markets that has been held about 20 times during the past five years in southeast Asia, Australia, the Middle East, Europe, North America, Caribbean, and Africa. He has recently launched an online version of his live course (details at www.naturalgasdynamics.com). He is also creator of GasUnits, an iPhone/iPad app for conversion of natural gas units, and LNGProjects, an iPhone/iPad app that lists key facts from more than 75 LNG projects. He also manages a popular natural gas information site www.natgas.info and is based in Melbourne, Australia. |
