Characterisation of petroleum assets for portfolio management*
Bernardus Wahyuputro A , Steve Begg B and Graeme Bethune CA The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005. Email: bwahyuputro@asp.adelaide.edu.au
B Australian School of Petroleum Adelaide SA 5005. Email: steve.begg@adelaide.edu.au
C EnergyQuest Australia L10/60 Waymouth Street, Adelaide, SA 5000. Email: gbethune@energyquest.com.au
The APPEA Journal 50(2) 721-721 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ09085
Published: 2010
Abstract
There is growing use of modern portfolio management methods that integrate risks, strategic goals and optimisation techniques to aid investment decision-making in the exploration and production industry. This modern approach consists of stages of analysis that include asset analysis, strategic goals definition and portfolio selection to maximise the probability of meeting the strategic goals. To date, most work in this area has focussed on the portfolio management requirements of oil and gas operators. However, the approach has the potential to help decision-making surrounding the management of the petroleum resources of a state. Specifically, we are investigating its potential to help set fiscal terms that encourage investment whilst meeting state goals. Indonesia’s petroleum resources are used to inform and provide data for the study.
This paper presents the problems identified and solutions developed in performing the first step—describing, quantifying and modelling the uncertainty in the performance of the assets that comprise the portfolio. Due to the size and heterogeneity of the portfolio, we have chosen to characterise the assets into different types, rather than model each one individually.
The main benefit of characterising the assets is to make the problem tractable, particularly when it comes to optimisation. Characterisation will also provide insight to decision-maker’s about the nature of the portfolio that may impact long-term planning and setting of targets. Whilst the approach taken is motivated by the specific needs of a nation’s portfolio, it is expected that the lessons learned will be of use to operators with similar characteristics—large, heterogeneous portfolios.
Keywords: portfolio management, petroleum, assets characterisation, cluster analysis, hierarchical, k-means
Bernardus Wahyuputro is a PhD candidate in Petroleum Business Management at the Australian School of Petroleum, University of Adelaide. Before continuing his education in Adelaide, he worked for BPMigas (a government agency that supervises and controls upstream oil and gas companies’ operations in Indonesia) and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources as an economic and policy analyst. Prior to joining the government agencies in 2000, Bernardus spent 10 years in a leading national consulting firm. He has been involved in many energy-related projects, especially in economic and policy analysis. Bernardus has a BEng in industrial engineering and an MEng in development studies, both from Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia. |
Stephen (Steve) H. Begg has a BSc and a PhD in geophysics from the University of Reading, England. He is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering and Management at the University of Adelaide, Australia, focussing on decision making under uncertainty, asset and portfolio economic evaluations, and psychological factors that impact these. Formerly, he was the director of strategic planning and decision science with Landmark Graphics. Prior to that he held a variety of senior operational engineering and geo-science roles for BP Exploration, and was a reservoir characterisation researcher and manager for BP Research. Steve has been an SPE Distinguished Lecturer and has Chaired several SPE Forums and Advanced Technology Workshops related to his areas of expertise. Member: SPE and AAPG. |
Graeme Bethune is CEO of EnergyQuest Australia. Prior to establishing EnergyQuest in 2005, Graeme held a range of senior positions with Santos, responsible for finance, business development and investor relations. He is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and the Australian Society of Certified Practising Accountants and is a member of the US Society of Petroleum Engineers and the Australian Institute of Energy, of which he is chair of the South Australian branch. Graeme has a first-class honours degree in economics from Monash University and a PhD from the Australian National University. He has undertaken the executive program at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. |
References
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