AUSTRALIA’S HYDROCARBON PROVINCES—WHERE WILL FUTURE PRODUCTION COME FROM?

Abstract

The cumulative graph of reserves added to a basin through time is a measure of that basins’ exploration maturity. Additions of reserves through new field discovery are limited in the Bowen-Surat, Gippsland, Cooper-Eromanga and Bonaparte Basins whilst significant discoveries continue to be made in the Carnarvon Basin. The recent discoveries in the Perth Basin represent a significant new phase in the addition to reserves for this basin. Reserves growth in existing fields represents a very significant source of new crude oil reserves. All gas bearing basins including those in eastern Australia show potential for additional gas discoveries. Coal Bed Methane also represents a significant gas resource into the future.

Australia’s production of crude oil has averaged 11% of the remaining reserves over the last decade. In the late 90s, the rate of production has exceeded the rate of addition to reserves and production must decline in the medium term. Medium- to long-term forecasts of future crude oil production are uncertain because of the difficulty in predicting the rate of crude oil discovery, particularly since many of the established plays in established crude oil basins appear to have little remaining potential and success rates and potential for new plays in established and frontier areas of exploration is unknown.

Rates of gas production are not related to existing reserves, but rather to the dynamics of the commercial market which is strongly influenced by regional infrastructure.