Register      Login
Crop and Pasture Science Crop and Pasture Science Society
Plant sciences, sustainable farming systems and food quality
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > CP > AR06200 > Fulltext
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 58(10)

How do probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts compare with other innovations that Australian farmers are encouraged to adopt?

Peter Hayman A D , Jason Crean B , John Mullen C and Kevin Parton B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A SARDI Waite Research Precinct, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.

B School of Rural Management, Charles Sturt University, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia.

C NSW Department of Primary Industries, Locked Bag 21, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia.

D Corresponding author. Email: hayman.peter@saugov.sa.gov.au

Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58(10) 975-984 https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06200
Submitted: 15 June 2006  Accepted: 17 August 2007   Published: 30 October 2007

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) from public institutions have been issued to Australian farmers since the late 1980s. Surveys suggest that 30–50% of farmers take seasonal climate forecasts into account when making farm management decisions. Even for the farmers who have adopted SCFs, integrating them into decisions on the farm seems to be a greater challenge than first thought.

We use adoption theory to consider SCFs as an innovation presented to farmers. We consider the problem that SCFs is seeking to solve, the nature of the innovation, and how SCFs compare with other innovations that Australian farmers are encouraged to adopt. We conclude that there are unique challenges presented by the problem of managing climate uncertainty. Demonstrating the relative advantage of a probabilistic SCF is difficult because it is an information-based public good, relatively complex, difficult to trial, and only partially compatible with existing practices. In their favour, SCFs are free or relatively low cost and the information can be applied across different paddocks and different enterprises. We compare and contrast SCFs with other innovations that Australian farmers have been encouraged to adopt over their working life time, such as grain-price forecasts, new wheat varieties, the increased use of nitrogen fertiliser, no-tillage, and precision agriculture.


Acknowledgments

This work was partially funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research through the project ‘Bridging the Gap between SCF and Agricultural Decision Makers in Australia and the Philippines’ and the Grains Research Development Corporation and Land and Water Australia through the project ‘Communication and Evaluation of MCVP Grains Projects’. Victor Sadras, Melissa Rebbeck, and Bronya Alexander provided useful comments, as did two anonymous referees. We are grateful to Neil Plummer, Bureau of Meteorology, and Barry White, Land and Water Australia, for access to survey data.


References


Anderson JR (1987) Impacts of climate variability in Australian agriculture: a review. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 47, 147–177. open url image1

Anderson JR (2003) Risk in rural development: challenges for managers and policy makers. Agricultural Systems 75, 161–197.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Anderson JR , Dillon JL , Hardaker JB (1977) ‘Agricultural decision analysis.’ (Iowa State University Press: Ames, IA)

Angus JF (2001) Nitrogen supply and demand in Australian agriculture. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 41, 277–288.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2006) ‘Background Information to seasonal climate outlook.’ (www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead)

Barr N , Cary J (1992) ‘Greening a brown land: the search for a sustainable land use in Australia.’ (Macmillan: Melbourne)

Blackadder J (2005) ‘Masters of the climate: innovative farmers coming through drought.’ (Land & Water Australia: Canberra)

Bureau of Meteorology (2001) ‘Climate activities in Australia.’ (Bureau of Meteorology: Melbourne)

Burgelman RA , Maidique MA , Wheelwright SC (1996) ‘Strategic management of technology and innovation.’ 2nd edn (Irwin: Homewood, IL)

Cary J , Webb T , Barr N (2002) ‘Understanding landholders’ capacity to change to sustainable practices: insights about practice adoption and capacity to change.’ (Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Australia: Canberra, ACT)

Cary JW, Wilkinson RL (1997) Perceived profitability and farmers’ conservation behaviour. Journal of Agricultural Economics 48, 13–21. open url image1

Chambers R (1994) Foreword. In ‘Beyond farmer first. Rural people’s knowledge, agricultural research and extension practice’. (Eds I Scoones, J Thompson) (Intermediate Technology Publications: London)

Changnon SA , Pielke RA , Changnon D , Wilkins L (2000) Summary: surprises, lessons learned, and the legacy of El Nino 1997–1998. In ‘El Nino 1997–1998. The climate event of the century’. (Ed. SA Changnon) pp. 172–196. (Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK)

CVAP (1999) ‘Innovative adaptations to climate variability – to be promoted as ‘Masters of the Climate’ (A1).’ Climate variability in agriculture R&D Program. Available at: www.cvap.gov.au/newfsAtkins.htm

Davis M (2001) ‘Late Victorian Holocausts. El Nino famines and the making of the Third World.’ (Verso: London)

D’Emden FH, Llewellyn RS (2006) No-tillage adoption decisions in southern Australian cropping and the role of weed management. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 46, 563–569.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Drought Review Panel (2004) ‘Consultations on National Drought Policy—preparing for the future.’ (Dept of Agricultural Fisheries and Forestry, available at: www.daff.gov.au/droughtassist)

Easterling WE (1999) Preface. In ‘Making climate forecasts matter, ix–xii’. (National Academy Press: Washington, DC)

George D, Clewett JF, Buckley D, Partridge IJ, Birch C (2005) Assessing climate risk to improve farm business management. Extension Farming Systems Journal 1, 71–78. open url image1

Hamilton NA (1995) Learning to learn with farmers: a case study of an adult learning extension project conducted in Queensland, Australia 1990–1995. PhD thesis, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Hammer GL, Holzworth DP, Stone R (1996) The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 47, 717–737.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hammer GL , Nicholls NN (1996) Managing for climate variability—the role of seasonal climate forecasting in improving agricultural systems. In ‘Proceedings of the 2nd Australian Conference on Agricultural Meteorology’. Brisbane, pp. 19–27. (University of Queensland: Brisbane)

Hansen JW (2002) Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agricultural Systems 74, 309–330.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hartmann HC, Bales R, Sorooshian S (2002) Weather, climate and hydrologic forecasting for the US Southwest: a survey. Climate Research 21, 239–258.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hassall and Associates (2004) Evaluation of GRDC supported farming systems projects. Report prepared for GRDC HAS00002. Available at: www.grdc.com.au/growers/res_summ/has00002/contents.htm

Hayman P , Cox P (2005) Drought risk as a negotiated construct. In ‘From disaster response to risk management—Australia’s National Drought Policy’. (Eds LC Botterill, DA Wilhite) pp. 113–126. (Springer)

Hayman PT, Alston CL (1999) A survey of farmer practices and attitudes to nitrogen management in the northern New South Wales grains belt. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 39, 51–63.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hayman PT , Easdown WJ (2002) An ecology of a DSS: reflections on managing wheat crops in the northeastern Australian grains region with WHEATMAN. In ‘Agricultural systems’. Vol. 74. (Eds RL McCown, Z Hochman, PS Carberry) pp. 57–77. (Elsevier: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Hayman PT , Pollock KS , Huda AKS (1999) Decision support for improved climatic risk/opportunity management in dryland cropping systems. Report to GRDC on UWS 017.

Hochman Z , van Rees H , Carberry PS , Holzworth D , Dalgliesh NP , et al. (2005) Can access to a cropping system simulator help farmers reduce risk in drought-prone environments? In ‘InterDrought-II. The 2nd International Conference on Integrated Approaches to Sustain and Improve Plant Production Under Drought Stress’. Rome, Italy.

Keogh DU, Abawi GY, Dutta SC, Crane AJ, Ritchie JW, Harris TR, Wright CG (2004b) Context evaluation: a profile of irrigator climate knowledge, needs and practices in the northern Murray-Darling Basin to aid development of climate-based decision support tools and information and dissemination of research. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 247–257.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Keogh DU, Bell KL, Park JN, Cobon DH (2004a) Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 233–246.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Keogh DU, Watson IB, Bell KL, Cobon DH, Dutta SC (2005) Climate information needs of Gascoyne–Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 45, 1613–1625.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

King CA (2003) Social learning towards sustainable agriculture: a contemporary approach to farming systems R D & E. In ‘Proceedings of the 1st Australian farming systems conference’. (Eds C King, B Robinson) p. 105. (The Australian Farming Systems Association Inc.: Toowoomba, Qld)

Lawrence DN, Cawley ST, Hayman PT (2000) Developing answers and learning in extension for dryland nitrogen management. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 40, 527–540.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Leith P (2006) Conversations about climate: seasonal variability and graziers’ decisions in the eastern rangelands. School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania.

Lindner RK (1987) Adoption and diffusion of technology: an overview. In ‘Technological change in postharvest handling and transportation of grains in the humid tropics. ACIAR Proceedings No. 19’. (Eds BR Champ, E Highley, JV Remenyi) pp. 144–151. (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research: Canberra, ACT)

Lindner RK, Pardey PG, Jarrett FG (1982) Distance to information source and the time lag to early adoption of trace element fertilizers. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 26, 98–113. open url image1

Marra M, Pannell DJ, Abadi Ghadim A (2003) The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve? Agricultural Systems 75, 215–234.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Marshall GR, Parton KA, Hammer GL (1996) Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 40, 211–234. open url image1

Martin RJ, McMillan MG, Cook JB (1988) Survey of farm management practices of the northern wheat belt of New South Wales. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 28, 499–509.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Mavi HS , Tupper GJ (2004) ‘Agrometeorology principles and applications of climate studies in agriculture.’ (Food Products Press: New York)

McCown RL, Hammer GL, Hargreaves JNG, Holzworth DM, Freebairn DM (1996) APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research. Agricultural Systems 50, 255–271.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McCown RL , Hochman Z , Carberry PS (2002) Probing the enigma of the decision support system for farmers: learning from experience and from theory. In ‘Agricultural systems’. Vol. 74. (Eds RL McCown, Z Hochman, PS Carberry) pp. 1–10. (Elsevier: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

McInnes KL , Suppiah R , Whetton PH , Hennessy KJ , Jones RN (2002) Climate change in South Australia: report on assessment of climate change, impacts and possible adaptation strategies relevant to South Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic.

McIntosh PC, Ash AJ, Stafford Smith M (2005) From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management. Journal of Climate 18, 4287–4302.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McKeon G , Hall W , Henry B , Stone G , Watson I (Eds) (2004) ‘Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia’s rangelands—learning from history.’ (Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy: Brisbane)

Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Climatic Change 70, 221–253.
| Crossref |
open url image1

Meinke H , Wright W , Hayman P , Stephens D (2003) Managing cropping systems in variable climates. In ‘Principles of field crop production’. 4th edn (Ed. J Pratley) pp. 26–77. (Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK)

Nelson R , Kokic P (2004) Forecasting the regional impact of climate variability on Australian crop farm incomes. ABARE eReport 04.23, Prepared for the Grains Research and Development Corporation, Canberra, ACT.

Nelson RA, Holzworth DP, Hammer GL, Hayman PT (2002) Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in north-east Australia using Discussion Support Software. Agricultural Systems 74, 393–414.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Nicholls N (1999) Cognitive illusions, heuristics and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, 1385–1397.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Nicholls N, Wong K (1990) Dependence of rainfall variation on mean rainfall, latitude and the southern oscillation. Journal of Climate 3, 163–170.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Pannell DJ (1998) On the use of individual-farm models for analysis of resource conservation problems. SEA Working Paper 98/03.

Pannell DJ (1999) Social and economic challenges in the development of complex farming systems. Agroforestry Systems 45, 395–409.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Pannell DJ, Marshall GR, Barr N, Curtis A, Vanclay F, Wilkinson R (2006) Understanding and promoting adoption of conservation technologies by rural landholders. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 46, 1407–1424.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Parton KA , Read D (2002) What is sensible drought policy. Asian Agribusiness Research Centre Working Paper, University of Sydney, NSW.

Pratley J , Stanton R (2003) Crop establishment and management. In ‘Principles of field crop production’. 4th edn (Ed. J Pratley) pp. 321–356. (Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK)

Rebbeck MA , Alexander BM , Hayman PT (2006) Climate risk seasonal outlook—pocket guide for wool producers in the pastoral rangelands of SA. Climate Applications Unit, South Australian Research and Development Institute, Adelaide.

Ridley AM (2005) The role of farming systems group approaches in achieving sustainability in Australian agriculture. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 45, 603–615.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Rogers EM (2003) ‘Diffusion of innovations.’ 5th edn (Free Press: New York)

Rölling NG (1988) ‘Extension science information systems in agricultural development.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Sinden JA, King DA (1990) Adoption of soil conservation measures in Manilla Shire, New South Wales. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 58, 179–192. open url image1

Stehlick D (2005) Managing risk: social policy responses in time of drought. In ‘From disaster response to risk management—Australia’s National Drought Policy’. (Eds LC Botterill, DA Wilhite) pp. 65–83. (Springer)

Stone RC, Auliciems A (1992) SOI phase relationship with rainfall in eastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 12, 625–636.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Taleb NN (2004) ‘Fooled by randomness.’ 2nd edn (Random House: New York)

URS Australia (2001) Defining researching opportunities for improved applications of seasonal forecasting in south-eastern Australia with particular reference to the southern NSW and Victorian grain regions. Prepared for the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program, August 2001.

Wahlquist A (2003) Media representations and public perceptions of drought. In ‘Beyond drought—people, policy and perspectives’. (Eds LC Botterill, M Fisher) pp. 67–86. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)

Watson P (2004) Uptake of precision agriculture by the Australian grains industry. 2004 Ground Cover Survey, GRDC Precision Agriculture Initiative SIP09. (Available at: www.grdc.com.au/growers/res_summ/sip09/contents.htm)

White BJ (2000) The importance of climate variability and seasonal forecasting to the Australian economy. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems—the Australian experience’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 1–22. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

White BJ (2001) Survey shows forecasts use up. Climag Newsletter of the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program.

Williams J (1999) Biophysical aspects of natural resource management. In ‘Proceedings of the National Agricultural and Resources Outlook Conference’. pp. 113–123. (ABARE: Canberra, ACT)

Wylie P (2004) Assessing risks to encourage farm change. Report prepared for GRDC HOR 6 by Horizon Rural Management, Hassall and Associates and Consult Ag (Available at: www.grdc.com.au/growers/res_summ/hor6/index.htm)

Ziervogel G, Bithell M, Washington R, Downing T (2005) Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agricultural Systems 83, 1–26.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1









1www.daff.gov.au/content/publications.cfm?ObjectID=C6CB6741-1D69-4F3E-B1DEECBD0653A17E

2Rogers defines innovation as an idea, practice, or object that is perceived to be new by potential adopters. Communication is a process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding. It is a two-way process of convergence (or divergence) rather than a one-way, linear act involving the transfer of information from one person to another. Time is an element of the innovation-diffusion process, innovativeness, and the innovation’s rate of adoption. A social system is a set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goal.

3We have not yet explored the implications of this characteristic for the willingness to pay by users for this service and hence for its demand.

4Whopper Cropper is a database of pre-run output files from the daily time-step cropping simulation model, APSIM that can be queried.