Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture

The authors acknowledge the funding provided by Land and Water Australia’s Climate Variability in Agriculture Program, which assisted in the undertaking of this work. Greg McKeon, Steven Crimp, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, and two anonymous reviewers provided many useful comments that have greatly improved the manuscript. Robert Fawcett at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne kindly supplied Fig. 1.

ABARE (2005) ‘Australian commodity statistics.’ (Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics: Canberra, ACT)

Adams PD, Horridge M, Madden J, Wittwer G (2002) Drought, regions and the Australian economy between 2001–02 and 2004–05. Australian Bulletin of Labour 28, 233–249.

Adams RM, Chen C, McCarl BA, Weiher RF (1999) The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture. Climate Research 13, 165–172.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Adejuwon JO, Odekunle TO (2004) Skill assessment of the existing capacity for extended-range weather forecasting in Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1249–1265.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Australia (2003) ‘AAA/AFFA Program Evaluation—Rural Producer Survey 2002.’ (Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Australia: Neutral Bay, NSW)

Allan RJ (2000) ENSO and climatic variability in the last 150 years. In ‘El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: multiscale variability, global and regional impacts’. (Eds HF Diaz, V Markgraf) pp. 3–55. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Ash A , O’Reagain P , McKeon G , Stafford Smith M (2000) Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: a case study of the Dalrymple Shire, North-Eastern Australia. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 253–270. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Austen EA, Sale PWG, Clark SG, Graetz B (2002) A survey of farmers’ attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of South-East Australia. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 42, 173–183.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bates B , Charles C , Hughes J (2000) Stochastic down-scaling of general circulation model simulations. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 253–270. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Berri GJ, Antico PL, Goddard L (2005) Evaluation of the Climate Outlook Forums’ seasonal precipitation forecasts of South East America during 1998–2002. International Journal of Climatology 25, 365–377.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Boone RB, Galvin KA, Coughenour MB, Hudson JW, Weisberg PJ, Vogel CH, Ellis JE (2004) Ecosystem modelling adds value to a South African climate forecast. Climatic Change 64, 317–340.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Botterill LC (2003) Government responses to drought in Australia. In ‘Beyond drought—people, policy and perspectives’. (Eds L Courtenay Botterill, M Fisher) pp. 49–66. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne, Vic.)

Cane M (2000) Understanding and predicting the world’s climate system. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 29–50. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Cane MA, Eshel G, Buckland RW (1994) Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific seas surface temperature. Nature 370, 204–205.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cantalaube P, Terres J (2005) Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe. Tellus 57A, 476–487.

Carberry P , Hammer G , Meinke H , Bange M (2000) The potential value of seasonal climate forecasting in managing cropping systems. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 167–181. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Carberry PS, Hochman Z, McCown RL, Dalgliesh NP, Foale MA , et al. (2002) The FARMSCAPE approach to decision support: farmers’, advisers’, researchers’ monitoring, simulation, communication, and performance evaluation. Agricultural Systems 74, 141–177.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Carter JO , Hall WB , Brook KD , McKeon GM , Day KA , Paull CJ (2000) AussieGRASS: Australian grassland and rangeland assessment by spatial simulation. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’ (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 329–350. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Chambers L , Li F , Nicholls N (2002) Seasonal climate forecasts for south-west Western Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, BMRC Research Report No. 86, Australia.

Clewett JF , Howden SM , McKeon GM , Rose CW (1990) Use of systems analysis and the Southern Oscillation Index to optimise management of grain sorghum production from a farm dam irrigation system. In ‘Climate risk in crop production models and management for the semi-arid tropics and subtropics’. (Eds R Muchow, J Bellamy) pp. 307–328. (CAB International: Wallingford, UK)

Clewett JF , Young PD , Willcocks JR (1988) Effect of climate change on agriculture in Central Queensland: rainfall variability analysis. In ‘The changing climate and central Queensland agriculture’. (Ed. ER Anderson) pp. 43–52. (Australian Institute of Agricultural Science: Rockhampton, Qld)

Cobon DH (1999) Use of seasonal climate forecasts for managing grazing systems in Western Queensland. In ‘Proceedings of the VI International Rangeland Congress’. Townsville. (Eds D Eldridge, D Freudenberger) pp. 855–857. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld)

Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M (2006) The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated couple multi-model South American seasonal predictions during ENSO. Advances in Geosciences 6, 51–55.

Crimp SJ , Day K (2003) Evaluation of multi-decadal variability in rainfall in Queensland using indices of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and inter-decadal variability. In ‘Science for drought. Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. Brisbane. (Eds R Stone, I Partridge) pp. 106–114. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane, Qld)

Dalgliesh N , Foale M (1998) ‘Soil matters: monitoring soil water and nutrients in dryland farming.’ Technical manual. (CSIRO/Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit: Toowoomba, Qld)

Day KA , Ahrens DG , Peacock A , Rickert KG , McKeon GM (2000) Climate tools for northern grassy landscapes. In ‘Proceedings of Northern Grassy Landscapes Conference’. Katherine, NT, 29–31 August 2000. pp. 93–97. (Cooperative Research Centre for the Sustainable Development of Tropical Savannas)

Drosdowsky W , Chambers L (1998) Near global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall. Bureau of Meteorology, BMRC Research Report No. 65, Australia.

Drought Review Panel (2004) ‘Consultations on National Drought Policy—preparing for the future.’ (Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry: Canberra, ACT)

Eakin H (2000) Smallholder maize production and climatic risk: a case study from Mexico. Climatic Change 45, 19–36.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Egan J , Hammer G (1995) Managing climate risks in grain production. In ‘Proceedings of Managing with Climate Variability Conference: Of Droughts and Flooding Rains’. Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation Occasional Paper, CV03/95, Canberra, ACT.

Fawcett RJB, Jones DA, Beard GS (2005) A verification of publicly-issued seasonal forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: 1998–2003. Australian Meteorological Magazine 54, 1–13.

Ferris JN (1999) ‘Forecasting global crop yields.’ (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University: Lansing, MI)

Foale MA, Probert ME, Carberry PS, Lack D, Yeates S, Brimblecombe D, Shaw R, Crocker M (2004) Participatory research in dryland cropping systems—monitoring and simulation of soil water and nitrogen in farmers’ paddocks in Central Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 321–331.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Folland CK, Colman AW, Rowell DP, Davey MK (2001) Predictability of Northeast Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill. Journal of Climate 14, 1937–1958.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Glantz MH (1982) Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: the case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resources Research 18, 3–13.

Goddard L, Barnston AG, Mason SJ (2003) Evaluation of the IRI’s ‘Net Assessment’ seasonal climate forecasts 1997–2001. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84, 1761–1781.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hallstrom DG (2004) Interannual climate variation, climate prediction and agricultural trade: the costs of surprise versus variability. Review of International Economics 12, 441–455.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hammer G , Carberry P , Stone R (2000) Comparing the value of seasonal climate forecasting systems in managing cropping systems. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 183–195. (Kluwer Academic Publishers: The Netherlands)

Hansen JW (2002) Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agricultural Systems 74, 309–330.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hansen JW, Indege M (2004) Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation for maize yield prediction in semi-arid Kenya. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 125, 143–157.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Harrison M (2005) The development of seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting. Climatic Change 70, 201–220.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hayman PT (2000) Trying to be clear about uncertainty: choices, chances and chocolate wheels. In ‘Farm management decisions with climate risk: publication for the International Workshop’. (Ed. K Gibson) pp. 63–68. (Queensland Centre for Climate Applications: Toowoomba, Qld)

Henry B , Bruget D , Carter J , Cobon D , Flood N , Hacker R , McKeon G , Peacock A , Truscott M , Watson I (2004) Improved climate forecasts for Australia’s wool producers. In ‘Proceedings of the Australian Rangeland Society 13th Biennial Conference’. Alice Springs. (Eds G Bastin, D Walsh, S Nicholson) pp. 257–258. (Australian Rangeland Society)

Henry BK (2006) Improved climate forecasts for wool producers in Australia’s pastoral zone. Land, Water and Wool Climate Sub-program, Land & Water Australia Project QNR30, Milestone 8 Final Report. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Water.

Hill HSJ, Mjelde JW, Love HA, Rubas DJ, Fuller SW, Rosenthal W, Hammer G (2004) Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 52, 289–312.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hogan L , Woffendon K , Honslow K , Zheng S (1995) The impact of the 1994–95 drought on the Australian economy. In ‘Coping with drought’. Australian Institute of Agricultural Science, Occasional Paper No. 87, Melbourne, Vic.

Hunt J , van Rees H , Hochman Z , Carberry P , Holzworth D , et al. (2006) Yield Prophet^®: an online crop simulation service. In ‘Proceedings 13th Australian Agronomy Conference’. Australian Society of Agronomy: Parkville, Vic. (www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2006

Ingram KT, Roncoli MC, Kirshen PH (2002) Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agricultural Systems 74, 331–349.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Jagtap SS, Jones JW, Hildebrand P, Letson D, O’Brien JJ, Podesta G, Zierden D, Zazueta F (2002) Responding to stakeholder’s demands for climate information: from research to applications in Florida. Agricultural Systems 74, 415–430.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Jochec KG, Mjelde JW, Lee AC, Conner JR (2001) Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in West Texas. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40, 1629–1639.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Jones JW, Hansen JW, Royce FS, Messina CD (2000) Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 82, 169–184.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keogh DU, Bell KL, Park JN, Cobon DH (2004) Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 233–246.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keogh DU, Watson IW, Bell KL, Cobon DH, Dutta SC (2005) Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 45, 1613–1625.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Krishna Kumar K, Rupa Kumar K, Ashrit RG, Deshpande NR, Hansen JW (2004) Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1375–1393.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Leith PB (2006) ‘Conversations about climate: seasonal variability and graziers’ decisions in the eastern rangeland.’ (School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania: Hobart, Tas.)

Luseno WK, McPeak JG, Barrett CB, Little PD, Gebru G (2003) Assessing the value of climate forecast information for pastoralists: evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. World Development 31, 1477–1494.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lybbert TJ , Barrett CB , McPeak JG , Luseno WK (2004) ‘Bayesian Herders: optimistic updating of rainfall beliefs in response to external forecasts.’ Strategies and Analysis for Growth and Access Working Paper. (Cornell University: Ithaca, NY)

Maia AHN, Meinke H (2006) From inferential statistics to climate knowledge. Advances in Geosciences 6, 211–216.

Maia AHN, Meinke H, Lennox S, Stone RC (2007) Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems. Monthly Weather Review 135, 351–362.
| Crossref |


Martin P , King J , Puangsumalee P , Tulloh C , Treadwell R (2005) Australian Farm Survey results 2002–03 to 2004–05. (ABARE: Canberra, ACT)

McBride JL, Nicholls N (1983) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 111, 1998–2004.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McCown RL (2001) Learning to bridge the gap between scientific decision support and the practice of farming: evolution in paradigms of model-based research and intervention from design to dialogue. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 52, 549–571.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McCown RL (2002) Changing systems for supporting farmers’ decisions: problems, paradigms, and prospects. Agricultural Systems 74, 179–220.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McCown RL, Hochman Z, Carberry PS (2002) Learnings from twenty-five years of agricultural decision support systems: case histories of efforts to harness simulation models for farm work. Agricultural Systems 74, 1–220.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McCrea R, Dalgleish L, Coventry W (2005) Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1127–1137.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McIntosh PC, Ash AJ, Stafford Smith M (2005) From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management. Journal of Climate 18, 4287–4302.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McKeon G , Hall W , Henry B , Stone G , Watson I (2004) ‘Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia’s rangelands: learning from history.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy: Brisbane, Qld)

McNew KP, Mapp HP, Duchon CE (1991) Sources and uses of weather information for agricultural decision makers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 72, 491–498.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Meinke H , Donald L , deVoil P , Power B , Baethgen W , Howden M , Allan R , Bates B (2004) How predictable is the climate and how can we use it in managing cropping risks? In ‘Proceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress’. Brisbane, Qld. (CD-ROM, and www.cropscience.org.au)

Meinke H, deVoil P, Hammer GL, Power S, Allan R, Stone RC, Folland C, Potgieter A (2005) Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise? Journal of Climate 18, 89–96.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Meinke H , Hochman Z (2000) Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems—the Australian experience’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 149–165. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Climatic Change 70, 221–253.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M (2007) The years of El Niño, La Niña and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate 20, 2872–2880.
| Crossref |


Meza FJ, Wilks DS (2003) Value of operational forecasts of seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies for selected rain-fed agricultural locations of Chile. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 116, 137–158.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moura AD, Hastenrath S (2004) Climate prediction for Brazil’s Nordeste: performance of empirical and numerical modelling methods. Journal of Climate 17, 2667–2674.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Murphy AH (1993) What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 8, 281–293.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nelson R , Kokic P (2004) Forecasting the regional impact of climate variability on Australian crop farm incomes. ABARE Report 04.23, Canberra, ACT.

Nelson R, Kokic P, Elliston R, King J (2005) Structural adjustment – a vulnerability index for Australian broadacre agriculture. Australian Commodities 12, 171–179.

Nicholls N (1985) Impact of the southern oscillation on Australian crops. Journal of Climatology 5, 553–560.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nicholls N (1986) Use of the Southern Oscillation to predict Australian sorghum yield. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 38, 9–15.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nicholls N (1999) Cognitive illusions, heuristics and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(7),
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nicholls N (2000) Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 309–328. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

van Oldenborgh GJ, Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT (2005) Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform a statistical model over the last 15 years? Journal of Climate 18, 3240–3249.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Phillips JG, Deane D, Unganai L, Chimeli A (2002) Implications of farm-level response to seasonal climate forecasts for aggregate grain production in Zimbabwe. Agricultural Systems 74, 351–369.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Podesta G, Letson D, Messina C, Royce F, Ferreyra RA, Jones J, Hansen J, Llovet I, Grondona M, O’Brien JJ (2002) Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agricultural Systems 74, 371–392.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Potgieter AB, Everingham YL, Hammer GL (2003) On measuring quality of a probalistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts. International Journal of Climatology 23, 1195–1210.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Potgieter AB, Hammer GL, Butler D (2002) Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 53, 77–89.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Potgieter AB, Hammer GL, Meinke H, Stone RC, Goddard L (2005) Spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield reveals three putative types of El Niño. Journal of Climate 18, 1566–1574.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSo on Australia. Climate Dynamics 15, 319–324.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Ritchie JW, Abawi GY, Dutta SC, Harris TR, Bange M (2004b) Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 48, 65–93.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Ritchie JW, Zammit C, Beal D (2004a) Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making? A case study of the Border Rivers catchment in Australia? Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 104, 553–565.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Solow AR, Adams RA, Bryant KJ, Legler DM, O’Brien JJ, McCarl BA, Nayda W, Weiher R (1998) The value of improved ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. Climatic Change 39, 47–60.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Sonka ST, Hofing SL, Changon SL (1992) How agribusiness uses climate predictions: implications for climate research and provision of predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73, 1999–2008.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Stafford Smith M (2003) Linking environments, decision-making and policy in handling climatic variability. In ‘Beyond drought—people, policy and perspectives’. (Eds L Courtenay Botterill, M Fisher) pp. 131–152. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne, Vic.)

Stafford Smith M , Buxton R , McKeon G , Ash A (2000) Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: do production benefits translate into enterprise profits? In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 271–289. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

Stern PC , Easterling WC (Eds) (1999) ‘Making climate forecasts matter.’ (National Academy Press: Washington, DC)

Stone R, Auliciems A (1992) SOI phase relationships with rainfall in Eastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 12, 625–636.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Stone RC, Hammer GL, Marcussen T (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384, 252–255.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Syktus J , McKeon G , Flood N , Smith I , Goddard L (2003) Evaluation of a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system for Queensland. In ‘Science for drought. Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. Brisbane. (Eds R Stone, I Partridge) pp. 160–173. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane, Qld)

Thornton PK, Fawcett RH, Galvin KA, Boone RB, Hudson JW, Vogel CH (2004) Evaluating management options that use climate forecasts: modelling livestock production systems in the semi-arid zone of South Africa. Climate Research 26, 33–42.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tippett MK, Goddard L, Barnston AG (2005) Statistical-dynamical forecasts of Central Southwest Asia winter precipitation. Journal of Climate 18, 1831–1843.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Vizard AL, Anderson GA, Buckley DJ (2005) Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997–2005. Meteorological Applications 12, 343–355.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

White B (2000) The importance of climate variability and seasonal forecasting to the Australian economy. In ‘Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems—the Australian experience’. (Eds GL Hammer, N Nicholls, C Mitchell) pp. 1–22. (Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, The Netherlands)

White WB, Gershunov A, Annis JL, McKeon G, Syktus J (2004) Forecasting Australian drought using Southern Hemisphere modes of sea-surface temperature variability. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1911–1927.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

White WB, McKeon GM, Syktus JI (2003) Australian drought: the interference of multi-spectral global standing modes and travelling waves. International Journal of Climatology 23, 631–662.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Ziervogel G, Bithell M, Washington R, Downing T (2005) Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agricultural Systems 83, 1–26.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |