Assessing the impacts of projected climate changes on maize (Zea mays) productivity using crop models and climate scenario simulation
Xuan Yang A , Dorothy Menefee B , Song Cui
C * and Nithya Rajan D *
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi 030801, P.R. China.
B Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Temple, TX 76502, USA.
C School of Agriculture, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, USA.
D Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Crop & Pasture Science 72(12) 969-984 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP21279
Submitted: 21 January 2021 Accepted: 1 September 2021 Published: 2 December 2021
© 2021 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Context: Investigating agronomic responses of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) systems under global change could provide important insights in designing climate-resilient cropping systems.
Aims and methods: In this study, we integrated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) with Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 20 Global Climate Models to systematically: (1) calibrate and validate APSIM using large-field study conducted in East-Central Texas; (2) evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize productivity and risks; and (3) investigate the variations in growth stage lengths.
Key results: Results indicated that APSIM simulated grain yield, biomass production, precipitation productivity (PP; kg ha−1 mm−1) and developmental stage transition agreed well with observation (NRMSE < 14.9%). Changes in temperature and precipitation shortened growing seasons and affected available water, resulting in widely varied yield and PP. Mean grain yield changed from −34.8 to +19.7%, mean PP were improved 9.2–36.5%. The grain production could be maintained at least the standard of 75% of historical in most cases, but with greater risks for achieving higher threshold (50% of baseline). Finally, simulations indicated shortened days (4–13 days) for reaching key developmental stages for maize.
Conclusions and implications: The results advocate adoptions of management practice that incorporating early sowing, irrigations at sowing/VT stages, and selections of late-maturing cultivars for better sustainability and higher productivity.
Keywords: APSIM, climate change, climate risk, crop productivity, growing season duration, maize, precipitation productivity, the East-Central Texas.
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