A simulation model of kenaf for assisting fibre industry planning in northern Australia. III. Model description and validation

Abstract

NTKENAF (Version 1.1) is a computer model which simulates the growth of kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) under rainfed conditions in tropical Australia. In daily time-steps, the model simulates the phenology, leaf area development, biomass accumulation and partitioning, soil water balance and dry matter yields of kenaf plants based on climatic and management inputs. The model assumes adequate nutrition and no effect of pests and diseases. The model uses daily maximum and minimum temperature, solar radiation and rainfall. The duration from sowing to flowering is predicted using temperature and photoperiod. Leaf growth is described as a function of node production (as determined by temperature), leaf area per node and leaf area senescence. Potential daily biomass is predicted from leaf area index, the light extinction coefficient and radiation use efficiency, and partitioned to the economic stem yield. Soil evaporation is predicted using a two-stage evaporation model, and plant transpiration is predicted from the daily biomass accumulation, a transpiration efficiency coefficient and predicted daily vapour pressure deficit. Plant extractable soil water is dependent on the available soil water range for each depth increment, the extraction front velocity, and the extent of water extraction at each depth. Daily transpiration and leaf growth are decreased below potential values once the fraction of available soil water declines below a threshold value. NTKENAF V1.1 has been validated against observed data from kenaf experiments conducted at two sites (lat. 13¦48'S. and 14¦28'S.) in northern Australia. The predictive accuracy of the model was good over a range in above-ground biomass up to 25 000 kg ha-1 (n = 40, r2 = 0.94, root mean square deviation = 1716 kg ha-1). Validations were also undertaken for predictions of the core and bark stem components, leaf area index and plant extractable soil water contents. The development of NTKENAF has provided a tool which can greatly aid assessment of the feasibility of a fibre industry based on kenaf in northern Australia.