Modelling the impact of canker disease and fire regimes on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Critically Endangered and granite endemic shrub Banksia verticillata R.Br.
C. J. Yates
A D , S. Barrett B , M. Dilly B C , S. D. Hopper C , B. Stewart C and M. R. Williams A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Kensington, WA 6983, Australia.
B Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Parks and Wildlife Service South Coast Region, 120 Albany Highway, Albany, WA 6330, Australia.
C Centre for Natural Resource Management and School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Albany Campus, Albany, WA 6330, Australia.
D Corresponding author. Email: colin.yates@dbca.wa.gov.au
Australian Journal of Botany 69(5) 274-284 https://doi.org/10.1071/BT20156
Submitted: 2 March 2021 Accepted: 12 May 2021 Published: 28 June 2021
Abstract
Landscape-level processes such as fire regimes, increasing disease prevalence and a drying climate are emerging threats affecting plant groups such as the Proteaceae. Using field derived empirical data and a population simulation model we investigated population-level impacts of canker diseases and contemporary fire regimes on the threatened shrub and granite outcrop endemic Banksia verticillata R.Br. We found the persistence of B. verticillata on granite inselbergs is strongly influenced by fire frequency and extent, as well as the prevalence of canker disease. For populations where canker is present but having a relatively lower impact none of the fire scenarios resulted in extinction over the 100-year simulation, but all scenarios resulted in population decline with the magnitude of the effect increasing with fire frequency and extent (proportion of plants killed). In contrast, higher impact canker disease scenarios resulted in rapid population declines and potential extinction. Small increases in inter-fire adult survival reduced the rate of decline in populations with relatively low canker infestation. Research is urgently needed to understand the role that a warming and drying climate in the South-west Australian Floristic Region may have on the epidemiology of canker disease and the feasibility and effectiveness of treating individuals with appropriate fungicides.
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