Macro developments in the China and Southeast Asia beef sector
Scott Waldron A E , Luong Pham B , Dominic Smith A , Phan Sy Hieu C , Dong Xiaoxia D and Colin Brown A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Agriculture and Food Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
B HELVETas Swiss Intercooperation Vietnam, Van Phuc Diplomatic Quarters, 298F Kim Ma Street, Hanoi, Vietnam.
C Centre for Information and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, No. 2 Ngoc Ha, Ba Dinh, Hanoi, Vietnam.
D Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, No. 12 Zhongguancun South Street, Haidian District, Beijing, China.
E Corresponding author. Email: Scott.Waldron@uq.edu.au
Animal Production Science 59(6) 1001-1015 https://doi.org/10.1071/AN17434
Submitted: 5 July 2017 Accepted: 24 April 2018 Published: 20 August 2018
Abstract
The ‘international livestock revolution’ (ILR) literature has documented an increase in livestock production in developing countries over the past 40 years that has not kept pace with consumption, leading to increased prices and trade. These trends were forecast to increase into the future, with important implications for development, agribusiness and policy in developing countries. The trends have unfolded as forecast in the dynamic and diverse China and Southeast Asia region, but to a much greater extent than forecast and in ways that could not have been foreseen. The present study revises official statistics and incorporates data on informal trade flows to show that the gap between consumption and production, as well as trade flows both within the region and into it, are much higher than has been officially reported. It draws on a large range of secondary and primary data to investigate the drivers of change, including reasons for lagged production responses to price growth in terms of cattle numbers, and higher than officially reported productivity indicators.
Additional keywords: cattle, development, markets, statistics, trade.
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