The future protein decade: perspectives on global pressure to agriculture
Julian McGill A D , Amy Moss
B , Robert Swick B , David Jackson C and Martin Todd C
A LMC International Ltd, SO-30-8, Menara 1, No. 3 Jalan Bangsar, KL Eco City, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
B School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
C LMC International Ltd, 4th Floor, Clarendon House, 52 Cornmarket Street, Oxford OX1 3HJ, United Kingdom.
D Corresponding author. Email: JMcGill@lmc.co.uk
Animal Production Science 59(11) 1951-1956 https://doi.org/10.1071/AN19308
Submitted: 27 May 2019 Accepted: 30 July 2019 Published: 16 September 2019
Abstract
Most of the world’s arable area is sown to either grains or oilseeds, and it is the big movements in the profitability of these crops that determine the pressure on global cropping-area supply. This perspective incorporates publicly available data, primarily from the FAO, to demonstrate some of the shifting pressures on global agriculture. Additionally, it argues that the advent of biofuel policies created additional demand for the area to produce cereal and oil crops from 2002. However, with a slowing demand growth for ethanol biofuels, crops for human and animal consumption will once again become the main driver for crop acreage. In particular, protein crops will be favoured as higher incomes are strongly linked to a greater animal-product consumption. In addition, a shift to a more intensive animal production is further increasing the demand for protein crops. Therefore, we could ultimately see a contraction in cereal crops and much faster growth in oilseeds, albeit from a lower base, as the demand for feed becomes the main driver for global agriculture. Yet, this is occurring during a time in which protein content of the major oil crops has been declining (albeit while yields continue to increase).
Additional keywords: animal products, competition for crop area, crops acreage, dietary changes.
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