Regional patterns of continuing decline of the eastern quoll†
Calum X. Cunningham A B * , Zach Aandahl A , Menna E. Jones A , Rowena Hamer A C and Christopher N. Johnson A D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.
B School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
C Tasmanian Land Conservancy, 827 Sandy Bay Road, Sandy Bay, Tas. 7005, Australia.
D Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.
Australian Mammalogy 45(2) 151-159 https://doi.org/10.1071/AM22010
Submitted: 12 March 2022 Accepted: 5 September 2022 Published: 20 September 2022
© 2023 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Mammal Society. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)
Abstract
Like many other Australian mammals, eastern quolls (Dasyurus viverrinus) were widespread in the south-east of mainland Australia but went extinct there during the 20th century. The species remained abundant in Tasmania until it rapidly declined from 2001 to 2003, coinciding with a period of unsuitable weather. We provide an updated analysis of eastern quoll population trends in Tasmania using a time series of annual spotlight counts (1985–2019) collected across most of the species’ range. Eastern quolls were widespread and abundant in Tasmania until the early 2000s. In addition to the previously documented severe decline in the early 2000s in the east and northeast, we present new evidence of an earlier decline in the north (mid-1990s) and a more recent decline in the south (~2009). Declines have continued unabated during the last decade, resulting in a ~67% decline since the late 1990s in the area with high quoll abundance. Although the major decline in the early 2000s coincided with unfavourable weather, the continuing and more recent declines suggest other undetermined causes are also involved. We can no longer assume the presence of eastern quolls in Tasmania ensures the species’ long-term survival, highlighting the urgent need to conserve the remaining populations in Tasmania.
Keywords: climate change, change point regression, critical weight range, Dasyurus viverrinus, integrated nested laplace approximation, population decline, random field, range decline, species distribution.
References
Bachl, F. E., Lindgren, F., Borchers, D. L., and Illian, J. B. (2019). inlabru: an R package for Bayesian spatial modelling from ecological survey data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 10, 760–766.| inlabru: an R package for Bayesian spatial modelling from ecological survey data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bakka, H., Rue, H., Fuglstad, G.-A., Riebler, A., Bolin, D., Illian, J., Krainski, E., Simpson, D., and Lindgren, F. (2018). Spatial modeling with R-INLA: A review. WIREs Computational Statistics 10, e1443.
| Spatial modeling with R-INLA: A review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Barlow, M. M., Johnson, C. N., McDowell, M. C., Fielding, M. W., Amin, R. J., and Brewster, R. (2021). Species distribution models for conservation: identifying translocation sites for eastern quolls under climate change. Global Ecology and Conservation 29, e01735.
| Species distribution models for conservation: identifying translocation sites for eastern quolls under climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burbidge, A. A., and Woinarski, J. (2016). Dasyurus viverrinus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Available at
| Crossref | [downloaded on 13 October 2020]
Carver, S., Charleston, M., Hocking, G., Gales, R., and Driessen, M. M. (2021). Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Factors Associated with Trends in Bare-Nosed Wombats. The Journal of Wildlife Management 85, 449–461.
| Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Factors Associated with Trends in Bare-Nosed Wombats.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cunningham, C. X., Johnson, C. N., and Jones, M. E. (2020). A native apex predator limits an invasive mesopredator and protects native prey: Tasmanian devils protecting bandicoots from cats. Ecology Letters 23, 711–721.
| A native apex predator limits an invasive mesopredator and protects native prey: Tasmanian devils protecting bandicoots from cats.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cunningham, C. X., Comte, S., McCallum, H., Hamilton, D. G., Hamede, R., Storfer, A., Hollings, T., Ruiz-Aravena, M., Kerlin, D. H., Brook, B. W., Hocking, G., and Jones, M. E. (2021). Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread. Ecology Letters 24, 958–969.
| Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cunningham, C. X., Perry, G. L. W., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Forsyth, D. M., Driessen, M. M., Appleby, M., Brook, B. W., Hocking, G., Buettel, J. C., French, B. J., Hamer, R., Bryant, S. L., Taylor, M., Gardiner, R., Proft, K., Scoleri, V. P., Chiu-Werner, A., Travers, T., Thompson, L., Guy, T., and Johnson, C. N. (2022). Dynamics and predicted distribution of an irrupting ‘sleeper’ population: fallow deer in Tasmania. Biological Invasions 24, 1131–1147.
| Dynamics and predicted distribution of an irrupting ‘sleeper’ population: fallow deer in Tasmania.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania (2022). Natural Values Atlas v.3.11.1. Dataset downloaded June 15 2022. Available at https://www.naturalvaluesatlas.tas.gov.au/
Driessen, M., Carlyon, K., Gales, R., Mooney, N., Pauza, M., Thurstans, S., Visoiu, M., and Wise, P. (2011). Terrestrial mammals of a sheep-grazing property on Bruny Island, Tasmania. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 145, 51–64.
| Terrestrial mammals of a sheep-grazing property on Bruny Island, Tasmania.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
DSEWPC (Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population, and Communities) (2012). Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA), Version 7. URL: https://www.environment.gov.au/fed/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid=%7B1273FBE2-F266-4F3F-895D-C1E45D77CAF5%7D
Fancourt, B. A., Hawkins, C. E., and Nicol, S. C. (2013). Evidence of rapid population decline of the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) in Tasmania. Australian Mammalogy 35, 195–205.
| Evidence of rapid population decline of the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) in Tasmania.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fancourt, B. A., Bateman, B. L., VanDerWal, J., Nicol, S. C., Hawkins, C. E., Jones, M. E., and Johnson, C. N. (2015a). Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather? PLoS One 10, e0129420.
| Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fancourt, B. A., Hawkins, C. E., Cameron, E. Z., Jones, M. E., and Nicol, S. C. (2015b). Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll? PLoS One 10, e0119303.
| Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fancourt, B. A., Hawkins, C. E., and Nicol, S. C. (2018). Mechanisms of climate-change-induced species decline: spatial, temporal and long-term variation in the diet of an endangered marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll. Wildlife Research 45, 737–750.
| Mechanisms of climate-change-induced species decline: spatial, temporal and long-term variation in the diet of an endangered marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Frankham, G. J., Thompson, S., Ingleby, S., Soderquist, T., and Eldridge, M. D. B. (2017). Does the ‘extinct’ eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) persist in Barrington Tops, New South Wales?. Australian Mammalogy 39, 243–247.
| Does the ‘extinct’ eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) persist in Barrington Tops, New South Wales?.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Glenday, J., and Kennedy, A. (2021). Can extinct eastern quolls really return to the wild? ABC News, 21 May 2021. Available at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-22/can-extinct-australian-eastern-quolls-return-to-wild/100140048?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf246101740&utm_campaign=abc_illawarra&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf246101740=1
Gómez-Rubio, V. (2020). Chapter 8 Temporal Models. In ‘Bayesian inference with INLA’. (CRC Press.) Available at https://becarioprecario.bitbucket.io/inla-gitbook/ch-temporal.html
Hamer, R. P., Gardiner, R. Z., Proft, K. M., Johnson, C. N., and Jones, M. E. (2021). A triple threat: high population density, high foraging intensity and flexible habitat preferences explain high impact of feral cats on prey. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 288, 20201194.
| A triple threat: high population density, high foraging intensity and flexible habitat preferences explain high impact of feral cats on prey.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hamer, R. P., Robinson, N., Brewster, R., Barlow, M., Guinane, M., Humphrey, M., Mifsud, A., and Kutt, A. S. (2022). Not waiting for the death knell. A pilot study to examine supplementation and survivorship in a declining population of Tasmanian eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). Research Square , .
| Not waiting for the death knell. A pilot study to examine supplementation and survivorship in a declining population of Tasmanian eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hawkins, C. E., Baars, C., Hesterman, H., Hocking, G. J., Jones, M. E., Lazenby, B., Mann, D., Mooney, N., Pemberton, D., Pyecroft, S., Restani, M., and Wiersma, J. (2006). Emerging disease and population decline of an island endemic, the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii. Biological Conservation 131, 307–324.
| Emerging disease and population decline of an island endemic, the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hocking, G. J., and Driessen, M. M. (1992). ‘Tasmanian spotlight survey manual: a set of instructions and maps for conducting spotlight surveys in Tasmania.’ (Department of Parks Wildlife and Heritage.)
Hollings, T., Jones, M., Mooney, N., and McCallum, H. (2014). Trophic cascades following the disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil. Conservation Biology 28, 63–75.
| Trophic cascades following the disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hollings, T., Jones, M., Mooney, N., and McCallum, H. (2016). Disease-induced decline of an apex predator drives invasive dominated states and threatens biodiversity. Ecology 97, 394–405.
| Disease-induced decline of an apex predator drives invasive dominated states and threatens biodiversity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hope, B., Soderquist, T., and Eldridge, M. D. B. (2020). Eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus Shaw, 1800): a review of recent sightings on mainland Australia. Australian Mammalogy 42, 144–151.
| Eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus Shaw, 1800): a review of recent sightings on mainland Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kirkpatrick, J., and Bridle, K. (2007). ‘People, sheep and nature conservation: the Tasmanian experience.’ (CSIRO PUBLISHING.)
Lazenby, B. T., Tobler, M. W., Brown, W. E., Hawkins, C. E., Hocking, G. J., Hume, F., Huxtable, S., Iles, P., Jones, M. E., Lawrence, C., Thalmann, S., Wise, P., Williams, H., Fox, S., and Pemberton, D. (2018). Density trends and demographic signals uncover the long-term impact of transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 1368–1379.
| Density trends and demographic signals uncover the long-term impact of transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Leahy, L., Legge, S. M., Tuft, K., McGregor, H. W., Barmuta, L. A., Jones, M. E., and Johnson, C. N. (2016). Amplified predation after fire suppresses rodent populations in Australia’s tropical savannas. Wildlife Research 42, 705–716.
| Amplified predation after fire suppresses rodent populations in Australia’s tropical savannas.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lindeløv, J. K. (2020). mcp: An R package for regression with multiple change points. OSF Preprints [Preprint]
| Crossref |
Lindgren, F., Rue, H., and Lindström, J. (2011). An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 73, 423–498.
| An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lomolino, M. V., and Channell, R. (1995). Splendid Isolation: Patterns of Geographic Range Collapse in Endangered Mammals. Journal of Mammalogy 76, 335–347.
| Splendid Isolation: Patterns of Geographic Range Collapse in Endangered Mammals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
MacKenzie, D. I., and Kendall, W. L. (2002). How should detection probability be incorporated into estimates of relative abundance? Ecology 83, 2387–2393.
| How should detection probability be incorporated into estimates of relative abundance?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McCallum, H., and Jones, M. (2006). To Lose Both Would Look Like Carelessness: Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease. PLOS Biology 4, e342.
| To Lose Both Would Look Like Carelessness: Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McGregor, H. W., Legge, S., Jones, M. E., and Johnson, C. N. (2014). Landscape Management of Fire and Grazing Regimes Alters the Fine-Scale Habitat Utilisation by Feral Cats. PLoS One 9, e109097.
| Landscape Management of Fire and Grazing Regimes Alters the Fine-Scale Habitat Utilisation by Feral Cats.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McGregor, H., Legge, S., Jones, M. E., and Johnson, C. N. (2015). Feral cats are better killers in open habitats, revealed by animal-borne video. PLoS One 10, e0133915.
| Feral cats are better killers in open habitats, revealed by animal-borne video.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Miller, D. A. W., Pacifici, K., Sanderlin, J. S., and Reich, B. J. (2019). The recent past and promising future for data integration methods to estimate species’ distributions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 10, 22–37.
| The recent past and promising future for data integration methods to estimate species’ distributions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moore, H. A., Dunlop, J. A., Valentine, L. E., Woinarski, J. C. Z., Ritchie, E. G., Watson, D. M., and Nimmo, D. G. (2019). Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator. Diversity and Distributions 25, 1818–1831.
| Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Patton, A. H., Lawrance, M. F., Margres, M. J., Kozakiewicz, C. P., Hamede, R., Ruiz-Aravena, M., Hamilton, D. G., Comte, S., Ricci, L. E., Taylor, R. L., Stadler, T., Leaché, A., McCallum, H., Jones, M. E., Hohenlohe, P. A., and Storfer, A. (2020). A transmissible cancer shifts from emergence to endemism in Tasmanian devils. Science 370, eabb9772.
| A transmissible cancer shifts from emergence to endemism in Tasmanian devils.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Peacock, D., and Abbott, I. (2014). When the ‘native cat’ would ‘plague’: historical hyperabundance in the quoll (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae) and an assessment of the role of disease, cats and foxes in its curtailment. Australian Journal of Zoology 62, 294–344.
| When the ‘native cat’ would ‘plague’: historical hyperabundance in the quoll (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae) and an assessment of the role of disease, cats and foxes in its curtailment.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
R Core Team (2019). ‘R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.’ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria.)
Radford, J. Q., Woinarski, J. C. Z., Legge, S., Baseler, M., Bentley, J., Burbidge, A. A., Bode, M., Copley, P., Dexter, N., Dickman, C. R., Gillespie, G., Hill, B., Johnson, C. N., Kanowski, J., Latch, P., Letnic, M., Manning, A., Menkhorst, P., Mitchell, N., Morris, K., Moseby, K., Page, M., and Ringma, J. (2018). Degrees of population-level susceptibility of Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species to predation by the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). Wildlife Research 45, 645–657.
| Degrees of population-level susceptibility of Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species to predation by the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Robinson, N. M., Dexter, N., Brewster, R., Maple, D., MacGregor, C., Rose, K., Hall, J., and Lindenmayer, D. B. (2020). Be nimble with threat mitigation: lessons learned from the reintroduction of an endangered species. Restoration Ecology 28, 29–38.
| Be nimble with threat mitigation: lessons learned from the reintroduction of an endangered species.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Rounsevell, D., Taylor, R., and Hocking, G. (1991). Distribution records of native terrestrial mammals in Tasmania. Wildlife Research 18, 699–717.
| Distribution records of native terrestrial mammals in Tasmania.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Rue, H., Martino, S., and Chopin, N. (2009). Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 71, 319–392.
| Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Threatened Species Scientific Committee (2015). ‘Conservation Advice Dasyurus viverrinus Eastern Quoll.’ (Department of the Environment: Canberra.)
Ver Hoef, J. M., and Boveng, P. L. (2007). Quasi‐Poisson vs. negative binomial regression: how should we model overdispersed count data? Ecology 88, 2766–2772.
| Quasi‐Poisson vs. negative binomial regression: how should we model overdispersed count data?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wilson, B. A., Evans, M. J., Batson, W. G., Banks, S. C., Gordon, I. J., Fletcher, D. B., Wimpenny, C., Newport, J., Belton, E., Rypalski, A., Portas, T., and Manning, A. D. (2020). Adapting reintroduction tactics in successive trials increases the likelihood of establishment for an endangered carnivore in a fenced sanctuary. PLoS One 15, e0234455.
| Adapting reintroduction tactics in successive trials increases the likelihood of establishment for an endangered carnivore in a fenced sanctuary.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Woinarski, J. C. Z., Burbidge, A. A., and Harrison, P. L. (2015). Ongoing unraveling of a continental fauna: decline and extinction of Australian mammals since European settlement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, 4531–4540.
| Ongoing unraveling of a continental fauna: decline and extinction of Australian mammals since European settlement.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
