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Australian Health Review Australian Health Review Society
Journal of the Australian Healthcare & Hospitals Association
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Implications of conflicting definitions of probability to health risk communication: a case study of familial cancer and genetic counselling

Kieran C O'Doherty

Australian Health Review 31(1) 24 - 33
Published: 2007

Abstract

The question of what probability actually is has long been debated in philosophy and statistics. Although the concept of probability is fundamental to many applications in the health sciences, these debates are generally not well known to health professionals. This paper begins with an outline of some of the different interpretations of probability. Examples are provided of how each interpretation manifests in clinical practice. The discipline of genetic counselling (familial cancer) is used to ground the discussion. In the second part of the paper, some of the implications that different interpretations of probability may have in practice are examined. The main purpose of the paper is to draw attention to the fact that there is much contention as to the nature of the concept of probability. In practice, this creates the potential for ambiguity and confusion. This paper constitutes a call for deeper engagement with the ways in which probability and risk are understood in health research and practice.

https://doi.org/10.1071/AH070024

© AHHA 2007

Committee on Publication Ethics

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