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Is the smoke aloft? Caveats regarding the use of the Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke product as a proxy for surface smoke presence across the United States

Tianjia Liu , Frances Marie Panday, Miah Caine, Makoto Kelp, Drew Pendergrass, Loretta Mickley, Evan Ellicott, Miriam Marlier, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James

Abstract

Background: NOAA’s Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke product comprises smoke plumes digitized from satellite imagery. Recent studies have used HMS as a proxy for surface smoke presence. Aims: We compare HMS to airport observations, air quality station measurements, and model estimates of near-surface smoke. Methods: We quantify the agreement in smoke days and trends, regional discrepancies in levels of near-surface smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) within HMS polygons, and separation of total PM2.5 on smoke and non-smoke days across the contiguous U.S. and Alaska from 2010-2021. Key Results: We find large overestimates in HMS-derived smoke days and trends if we include light smoke plumes in the HMS smoke day definition. Outside of the western U.S. and Alaska, near-surface smoke PM2.5 within areas of HMS smoke plumes are low and almost indistinguishable across density categories, likely indicating frequent smoke aloft. Conclusions: Compared to airport, EPA, and model-derived estimates, HMS most closely reflects surface smoke in the Pacific and Mountain regions and Alaska when smoke days are defined using only heavy plumes or both medium and heavy plumes. Implications: We recommend careful consideration of biases in the HMS smoke product for air quality and public health assessments of fires.

WF23148  Accepted 19 August 2024

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