Southern Oscillation Anomalies and Their Relationship to Wildfire Activity in Florida

Abstract

Some relationships between the EI Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and wildfire in Florida are examined. Unlike many ENSO / wildfire studies to date, no particular emphasis was placed on the positive side of the ENSO. Both the positive and negative sides were equally examined. Linear correlation coefficients, scatter diagrams and line graphs are constructed to compare acres burned with indices of central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature and pressure anomalies. The study reveals a significant relationship between anomalous sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures in the tend and eastern Pacific, and acres burned in Florida due to wildfires. The typical fire season in Florida is during the winter months, and the best correlation coefficient ("r" 0.71) was derived from the average central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly for the period January through my, indicating it correlated with up to 50% of the variance in acres burned during the years examined. The study further suggests that it may be possible to develop a predictive model for wildfii activity in Florida, based on observed anomalies of sea surface temperatwe and sea level pressure in the central and eastern Pacific.