Cross-landscape fuel moisture differences impact simulated fire behaviour

K. Little; N. Kettridge; C. M. Belcher; L. J. Graham; C. R. Stoof; K. Ivison; A. Cardil

doi:10.1071/WF24019

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Next Contents Vol 33(9)

Cross-landscape fuel moisture differences impact simulated fire behaviour

K. Little

^A ^* , N. Kettridge ^A , C. M. Belcher ^B , L. J. Graham ^A ^C , C. R. Stoof ^D , K. Ivison ^A and A. Cardil ^E ^F ^G

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

^B wildFIRE Lab, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

^C Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria.

^D Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

^E Research and Development Department, Tecnosylva, León, Spain.

^F Joint Research Unit CTFC–AGROTECNIO–CERCA, Solsona, Spain.

^G Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain.

^* Correspondence to: k.e.little@bham.ac.uk

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF24019 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24019

Submitted: 27 January 2024 Accepted: 15 August 2024 Published: 6 September 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

Background

Predicting fire behaviour is an ongoing challenge in temperate peatlands and heathlands, where live fuels can form the dominant fuel load for wildfire spread, and where spatial heterogeneity in fuel moisture is important but not typically represented in fuel models.

Aims

We examine the impact of fuel moisture variation on simulated fire behaviour across a temperate peatland/heathland landscape.

Methods

We collected field measurements of fuel moisture content in Calluna vulgaris shrub from 36 sites across the North Yorkshire Moors, United Kingdom. We used these to define fuel moisture inputs within existing shrubland fuel models to simulate fire behaviour in BehavePlus.

Key results

Simulated rates of spread varied with fuel moisture content; average mean variance of 23–80% from the landscape average rate of spread. The driest sites had simulated rates of spread up to 135% above the landscape average and the wettest sites up to 86% below average. Fuel model selection dramatically impacted simulated rates of spread by a factor of five.

Conclusions

We need to constrain the role of live fuel moisture within temperate fuel models to develop accurate fire behaviour predictions.

Implications

Capturing cross-landscape heterogeneity in fire behaviour is important for safe and effective land and wildfire management decision-making.

Keywords: BehavePlus, Calluna vulgaris, fuel models, heathlands, live fuel moisture, peatlands, rate of spread, sensitivity analysis, shrub fuels, temperate ecosystems.

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