Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions

Tadas Nikonovas; Cristina Santín; Claire M. Belcher; Gareth D. Clay; Nicholas Kettridge; Thomas E. L. Smith; Stefan H. Doerr

doi:10.1071/WF23205

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 33(10)

Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions

Tadas Nikonovas

^A ^* , Cristina Santín ^A ^B , Claire M. Belcher ^C , Gareth D. Clay ^D , Nicholas Kettridge ^E , Thomas E. L. Smith ^F and Stefan H. Doerr ^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Centre for Wildfire Research, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK.

^B Biodiversity Research Institute (IMIB; CSIC – Universidad de Oviedo – Principality of Asturias), Mieres, 33600, Spain.

^C wildFIRE Lab, Hatherly Laboratories, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK.

^D Department of Geography, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.

^E School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.

^F Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

^* Correspondence to: tadas.nik@gmail.com

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23205 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23205

Submitted: 5 January 2024 Accepted: 31 August 2024 Published: 25 September 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

Background

Fire activity in the UK and comparable regions of northwest Europe is generally out of phase with peak fire weather conditions.

Aims

Here, we assess the potential effect of phenology on fire occurrence patterns for the UK.

Methods

We examined fire occurrence and vegetation phenology in the UK for 2012–2023, mapped onto the main fire-affected vegetation cover types within distinct precipitation regions, allowing the fire occurrence for fuels in different phenological phases to be explored across distinct ‘fuel’ types and regions.

Key results

The UK’s fire regime is characterised by burning in semi-natural grasslands and evergreen dwarf shrub ecosystems in early spring when vegetation is still dormant. During the high-greenness phase in late spring and summer, fire activity is reduced by a factor of 5–6 despite typically elevated fire weather conditions within that period.

Conclusions and implications

Semi-natural vegetation in the UK is very resistant to burning during the high-greenness phase. However, this ‘fire barrier’ is diminished during severe drought episodes, which are predicted to become more extreme in the coming decades. Incorporating phenology information into models therefore has great potential for improving future fire danger and behaviour predictions in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions.

Keywords: active fire detections, flammability, humid temperate regions, land cover, phenology, Suomi-NPP, vegetation fuels, VIIRS, wildfire regimes.

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