Australian Fire Danger Rating System Research Prototype: a climatology†

S. Sauvage; P. Fox-Hughes; S. Matthews; B. J. Kenny; J. J. Hollis; S. Grootemaat; J. W. Runcie; A. Holmes; R. M. B. Harris; P. T. Love; G. Williamson

doi:10.1071/WF23144

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Next Contents Vol 33(3)

Australian Fire Danger Rating System Research Prototype: a climatology^†

S. Sauvage ^A , P. Fox-Hughes

^A ^* , S. Matthews ^B ^F , B. J. Kenny ^B ^G , J. J. Hollis ^B ^E , S. Grootemaat ^B ^H , J. W. Runcie ^B , A. Holmes ^B , R. M. B. Harris ^C , P. T. Love ^C and G. Williamson

^C ^D

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 727, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.

^B New South Wales Rural Fire Service, Locked Bag 17, Granville, NSW 2142, Australia.

^C School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Locked Bag 78, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.

^D School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Locked Bag 78, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.

^E Present address: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation & Attractions, Brain Street, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.

^F Present address: Nova Systems, 100 William Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2011, Australia.

^G Present address: Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Level 8, 418A Elizabeth Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010, Australia.

^H Present address: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 4PS, 12 Darcy Street, Parramatta, NSW 2150, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: paul.fox-hughes@bom.gov.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23144 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23144

Submitted: 11 September 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 21 March 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Historical records of fire weather phenomena provide valuable insights into spatial and temporal trends which can inform further research and are important tools for planning.

Aims

We outline a 19-year climatology of a Research Prototype (AFDRS_RP), of the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System, documenting its spatial and temporal characteristics.

Methods

The analysis utilises the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s high-resolution reanalysis suite (BARRA), together with fuel data provided by Australian fire agencies. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the AFDRS_RP. Distributions are categorised by fuel type, analysing relative variability across time and space.

Key results

The results validate the broad behaviour of the new system and provide insight into the variation of fire danger throughout Australia, adding detail to the understanding of timing of peak fire danger both diurnally and annually.

Conclusions

While the AFDRS_RP differs from the operational system in its fire danger rating categories and tuning of algorithms, it nonetheless provides useful insights into the operational implementation.

Implications

These results will be essential for planning during fire seasons.

Keywords: AFDRS, Australia, climatology, fire behaviour, fire danger ratings, reanalysis, seasonality, temporal and spatial variability.

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