High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Alan Mandal A , Grzegorz Nykiel
A B , Tomasz Strzyzewski A D , Adam Kochanski C , Weronika Wrońska A , Marta Gruszczynska A and Mariusz Figurski A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland.
B Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdansk, Poland.
C Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192-0104, USA.
D Corresponding author. Email: tomasz.strzyzewski@imgw.pl
International Journal of Wildland Fire 31(2) 149-162 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21106
Submitted: 5 August 2021 Accepted: 10 November 2021 Published: 23 December 2021
Journal Compilation © IAWF 2022 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Due to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made with 24- and 48-h lead times. The purpose of this work is to present the validation of the implemented system. First, the results of the WRF model were validated using in situ observations from ~70 synoptic stations. Second, we used the correlation method and Eastaugh’s percentile analysis to assess the quality of the FWI index. The data covered the 2019 fire season and were analysed for the whole forest area in Poland. Based on the presented results, it can be concluded that the FWI index (calculated based on the WRF model) has a very high predictive ability of fire risk. However, the results vary by region, distance from human habitats, and size of fire.
Keywords: fire weather index, FWI, fire danger, forecasting, forest fires, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF, Poland.
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