Effects of policy change on wildland fire management strategies: evidence for a paradigm shift in the western US?
Jesse D. Young A G , Alexander M. Evans B , Jose M. Iniguez C , Andrea Thode A , Marc D. Meyer D , Shaula J. Hedwall E , Sarah McCaffrey F , Patrick Shin A C and Ching-Hsun Huang A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, 200 East Pine Knoll Drive, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
B Forest Stewards Guild, 2019 Galisteo St, Suite N7, Santa Fe, NM, 87505, USA.
C Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, 2500 South Pine Knoll Drive, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA.
D US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, Regional Ecology Program, 351 Pacu Lane, Bishop, CA, 93514, USA.
E US Fish and Wildlife Service, Southwest Region, Arizona Ecological Services, 2500 South Pine Knoll Drive, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA.
F Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, 240 W Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA.
G Corresponding author. Email: jdy28@nau.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 29(10) 857-877 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19189
Submitted: 13 November 2019 Accepted: 10 June 2020 Published: 5 August 2020
Journal Compilation © IAWF 2020 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
In 2009, new guidance for wildland fire management in the United States expanded the range of strategic options for managers working to reduce the threat of high-severity wildland fire, improve forest health and respond to a changing climate. Markedly, the new guidance provided greater flexibility to manage wildland fires to meet multiple resource objectives. We use Incident Status Summary reports to understand how wildland fire management strategies have differed across the western US in recent years and how management has changed since the 2009 Guidance for Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. When controlling for confounding variation, we found the 2009 Policy Guidance along with other concurrent advances in fire management motivated an estimated 27 to 73% increase in the number of fires managed with expanded strategic options, with only limited evidence of an increase in size or annual area burned. Fire weather captured a manager’s intent and allocation of fire management resources relative to burning conditions, where a manager’s desire and ability to suppress is either complemented by fire weather, at odds with fire weather, or put aside due to other priorities. We highlight opportunities to expand the use of strategic options in fire-adapted forests to improve fuel heterogeneity.
Additional keywords: decision making, dispersion, hazards, policy analysis, regression discontinuity, resource objective, wildland fire policy, zero inflation.
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