Net reductions or spatiotemporal displacement of intentional wildfires in response to arrests? Evidence from Spain
Jeffrey P. Prestemon A E , David T. Butry B , María L. Chas-Amil C and Julia M. Touza D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Forest Policy and Economics Research, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, PO Box 12254, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.
B Applied Economics Office, Engineering Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Mailstop 8603, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8603, USA.
C Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Avenida Xoán XXIII s/n, 15782, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
D Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, Heslington, York, YO10 5NG, UK.
E Corresponding author. Email: jeff.prestemon@usda.gov
International Journal of Wildland Fire 28(6) 397-411 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18234
Submitted: 13 June 2018 Accepted: 16 April 2019 Published: 31 May 2019
Journal compilation © IAWF 2019 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Research to date has not examined how the impacts of arrests manifest across space and time in environmental crimes. We evaluate whether arrests reduce or merely spatiotemporally displace intentional illegal outdoor firesetting. Using municipality-level daily wildfire count data from Galicia, Spain, from 1999 to 2014, we develop daily spatiotemporal ignition count models of agricultural, non-agricultural and total intentional illegal wildfires as functions of spatiotemporally lagged arrests, the election cycle, seasonal and day indicators, meteorological factors and socioeconomic variables. We find evidence that arrests reduce future intentional illegal fires across space in subsequent time periods.
Additional keywords: arson, autoregression, elections, negative binomial, panel data, spatiotemporal, zero inflation.
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