Future burn probability in south-central British Columbia
Xianli Wang A B F , Marc-André Parisien C , Stephen W. Taylor D , Daniel D. B. Perrakis E , John Little C and Mike D. Flannigan A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada.
B Present address: Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada. 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada.
C Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada.
D Pacific Forest Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada.
E British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Wildfire Management Branch, 2957 Jutland Road, 2nd Floor, Building A, Victoria, BC V8W 9C1, Canada.
F Corresponding author. Email: xianli.wang@canada.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(2) 200-212 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15091
Submitted: 24 April 2015 Accepted: 17 November 2015 Published: 18 January 2016
Abstract
Little is known about how changing climates will affect the processes controlling fire ignition and spread. This study examines the effect of climate change on the factors that drive fire activity in a highly heterogeneous region of south-central British Columbia. Future fire activity was evaluated using Burn-P3, a simulation model used to estimate spatial burn probability (BP) by simulating a very large number of fires. We modified the following factors in the future projections of BP: (1) fuels (vegetation), (2) ignitions (number of fires), and (3) weather (daily conditions and duration of fires). Our results showed that the future climate will increase the number of fires and fire-conducive weather, leading to widespread BP increases. However, the conversion of current forest types to vegetation that is not as flammable may partially counteract the effect of increasing fire weather severity. The top-down factors (ignitions and weather) yield future BPs that are spatially coherent with the current patterns, whereas the changes due to future vegetation are highly divergent from today’s BP. This study provides a framework for assessing the effect of specific agents of change on fire ignition and spread in landscapes with complex fire–climate–vegetation interactions.
Additional keywords: climate change, fire ignitions, fire weather, fuels.
References
Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA (2013) Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 1003–1020.| Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Alexander ME, Cruz MG (2013) Are the applications of wildland fire behaviour models getting ahead of their evaluation again? Environmental Modelling & Software 41, 65–71.
| Are the applications of wildland fire behaviour models getting ahead of their evaluation again?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Batllori E, Parisien M-A, Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA (2013) Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 22, 1118–1129.
| Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
BC STATS (2009) Sub-provincial population estimates. Available at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/estspop.asp#totpop [Verified 12 July 2014]
Breiman L (2001) Random forests. Machine Learning 45, 5–32.
| Random forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burton PJ, Parisien M-A, Hicke JA, Hall RJ, Freeburn JT (2008) Large fires as agents of ecological diversity in the North American boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 754–767.
| Large fires as agents of ecological diversity in the North American boreal forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Canadian Forest Service (2013) Canadian national fire database – agency fire data. (Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre: Edmonton, AB) Available at http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/en_CA/nfdb [Verified 10 April 2013]
Cary GJ, Keane RE, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, Davies ID, Li C, Lenihan JM, Rupp TS, Mouillot F (2006) Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology 21, 121–137.
| Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Church M, Ryder JM (2010) Physiography of British Columbia. In ‘Compendium of forest hydrology and geomorphology in British Columbia’. (Eds RG Pike, TE Redding, RD Moore, RD Winker, KD Bladon) Land Management Handbook, Vol. 66, pp. 17–46. (BC Ministry of Forests and Range: Victoria, BC)
Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanations and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 40, 677–697.
| Species distribution models: ecological explanations and prediction across space and time.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Filmon G (2004) ‘Firestorm 2003 provincial review.’ (Office of the Premier: Victoria, BC).
Finney MA (2005) The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 97–108.
| The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney MA, McHugh CW, Grenfell IC, Riley KL, Short KC (2011) A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 25, 973–1000.
| A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Logan KA, Amiro BD, Skinner WR, Stocks BJ (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1–16.
| Future area burned in Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXhtVyisrzM&md5=36c502af5394946473b23718c26b377eCAS |
Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group (1992) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System, Forestry Canada Information Report ST-X-3. (Ottawa, ON)
Forthofer JM (2007) Modeling wind in complex terrain for use in fire spread prediction. MSc Thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO.
Franklin JF, Spies TA, Van Pelt R, Carey AB, Thornburgh DA, Berg DR, Lindenmayer DB, Harmon ME, Keeton WS, Shaw DC, Bible K, Chen J (2002) Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications, using Douglas-fir forests as an example. Forest Ecology and Management 155, 399–423.
| Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications, using Douglas-fir forests as an example.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fried JS, Gilless JK, Spero J (2006) Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 137–146.
| Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fried JS, Gilless JK, Riley WJ, Moody TJ, de Blas CS, Hayhoe K, Torn M (2008) Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success. Climatic Change 87, 251–264.
| Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW, Flannigan MD (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L18211
| Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Graham RW, Grimm EC (1990) Effects of global climate change on the patterns of terrestrial biological communities. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 5, 289–292.
| Effects of global climate change on the patterns of terrestrial biological communities.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3M7hsValsw%3D%3D&md5=267ce977fbd3aa5896763d8464971277CAS |
Hallett DJ, Lepofsky DS, Mathewes RW, Lertzman KP (2003) 11 000 years of fire history and climate in the mountain hemlock rainforests of south-western British Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33, 292–312.
| 11 000 years of fire history and climate in the mountain hemlock rainforests of south-western British Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Haughian SR, Burton PJ, Taylor SW, Curry C (2012) Expected effects of climate change on forest disturbance regimes in British Columbia. Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13, 1–24.
Hebda RJ (1995) British Columbia vegetation and climate history with focus on 6 ka BP. Géographie physique et Quaternaire 49, 55–79.
| British Columbia vegetation and climate history with focus on 6 ka BP.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Higuera PE, Brubaker LB, Anderson PM, Hu FS, Brown TA (2009) Vegetation mediated the impacts of post-glacial climate change on fire regimes in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. Ecological Monographs 79, 201–219.
| Vegetation mediated the impacts of post-glacial climate change on fire regimes in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Eds RK Pachauri, A Reisinger). (IPCC: Geneva, Switzerland)
Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ, Moritz MA (2004) Lessons from the October 2003 wildfires in southern California. Journal of Forestry 102, 26–31.
Klenner W, Walton R, Arsenault A, Kremsater L (2008) Dry forests in the southern interior of British Columbia: historic disturbances and implications for restoration and management. Forest Ecology and Management 256, 1711–1722.
| Dry forests in the southern interior of British Columbia: historic disturbances and implications for restoration and management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liaw A, Wiener M (2002) Classification and regression by randomForest. R News 2/3, 18–22. [Verified 19 November 2015]http://cogns.northwestern.edu/cbmg/LiawAndWiener2002.pdf
Littell JS, McKenzie D, Kerns BK, Cushman S, Shaw CG (2011) Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change. Ecosphere 2, art102
| Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liu Z, Wimberly MC (2015) Climatic and landscape influences on fire regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the western United States. PLoS One 10, e0140839
| Climatic and landscape influences on fire regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the western United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26465959PubMed |
Magnussen S, Taylor SW (2012) Prediction of daily lightning- and human-caused fires in British Columbia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 342–356.
| Prediction of daily lightning- and human-caused fires in British Columbia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Meidinger D, Pojar J (1991) Ecosystems of British Columbia. BC Ministry of Forests special report series no. 6. (Victoria, BC). Available at https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/becweb/resources/codes-standards/standards-species.html [Verified 20 July 2014]
Meyn A, Schmidtlein S, Taylor SW, Girardin MP, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010a) Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 272–283.
| Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Meyn A, Taylor SW, Flannigan MD, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010b) Relationship between fire, climate oscillations, and drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000. Global Change Biology 16, 977–989.
| Relationship between fire, climate oscillations, and drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Batllori E, Krawchuk MA, van Dorn J, Ganz DJ, Hayhoe K (2012) Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. Ecosphere 3, art49
| Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nalder IA, Wein RW (1998) Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 92, 211–225.
| Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2008a) Integrating climate change into forest management in south-central British Columbia: an assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework. Forest Ecology and Management 256, 313–327.
| Integrating climate change into forest management in south-central British Columbia: an assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2008b) Climatic change and fire potential in south-central British Columbia, Canada. Global Change Biology 14, 841–855.
| Climatic change and fire potential in south-central British Columbia, Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2013) Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of south-central interior, British Columbia. Climatic Change 116, 579–591.
| Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of south-central interior, British Columbia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parisien M-A, Kafka VG, Hirsch KG, Todd JB, Lavoie SG, Maczek PD (2005) Mapping wildfire susceptibility with the BURN-P3 simulation model. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre Information Report NOR-X-405. (Edmonton, AB)
Parisien M-A, Parks S, Miller C, Krawchuk M, Heathcott M, Moritz M (2011) Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape. Ecosystems 14, 1141–1155.
| Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parisien M-A, Walker GR, Little JM, Simpson BN, Wang X, Perrakis DDB (2013) Considerations for modeling burn probability across landscapes with steep environmental gradients: an example from the Columbia Mountains, Canada. Natural Hazards 66, 439–462.
| Considerations for modeling burn probability across landscapes with steep environmental gradients: an example from the Columbia Mountains, Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parks SA (2014) Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 215–223.
| Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parks SA, Parisien M-A, Miller C (2012) Spatial bottom-up controls on fire likelihood vary across western North America. Ecosphere 3, art12
| Spatial bottom-up controls on fire likelihood vary across western North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pausas JG, Paula S (2012) Fuel shapes the fire–climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 21, 1074–1082.
| Fuel shapes the fire–climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Perrakis DD, Lanoville RA, Taylor SW, Hicks D (2014) Modeling wildfire spread in mountain pine beetle-affected forest stands, British Columbia, Canada. Fire Ecology 10, 10–35.
| Modeling wildfire spread in mountain pine beetle-affected forest stands, British Columbia, Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Peterson GD (2002) Contagious disturbance, ecological memory, and the emergence of landscape pattern. Ecosystems 5, 329–338.
| Contagious disturbance, ecological memory, and the emergence of landscape pattern.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Podur JJ, Wotton BM (2011) Defining fire spread event days for fire-growth modeling. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 497–507.
| Defining fire spread event days for fire-growth modeling.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
R Core Team (2015) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria) Available at http://www.R-project.org/ [Verified 20 June 2015]
Reed WJ (2006) A note on fire frequency concepts and definitions. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36, 1884–1888.
| A note on fire frequency concepts and definitions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Régnière J, Saint-Amant R (2007) Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico. International Journal of Biometeorology 51, 415–430.
| Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17225130PubMed |
Régnière J, Saint-Amant R (2008) BioSim 9 – user’s manual. Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Information Report LAU-X-134. (Quebec, QC)
Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Sáenz-Romero C, Campbell EM (2012) North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems. Ecological Applications 22, 119–141.
| North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 22471079PubMed |
Schneider RR, Hamann A, Farr D, Wang X, Boutin S (2009) Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39, 1001–1010.
| Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scott JH, Helmbrecht DJ, Parks SA, Miller C (2012) Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland–urban interface on the Bridger–Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA. Fire Ecology 8, 125–142.
| Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland–urban interface on the Bridger–Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stavros EN, Abatzoglou JT, McKenzie D, Larkin NK (2014) Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Climatic Change 126, 455–468.
| Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Taylor SW, Woolford DG, Dean CB, Martell DL (2013) Wildfire prediction to inform fire management: statistical science challenges. Statistical Science 28, 586–615.
| Wildfire prediction to inform fire management: statistical science challenges.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Tymstra C, Bryce RW, Wotton BM, Taylor SW, Armitage OB (2010) Development and structure of Prometheus: the Canadian wildland fire growth simulation model. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre Information Report NOR-X-417. (Edmonton, AB)
Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forestry Service, Environment Canada Forestry Technical Report 35. (Ottawa, ON)
Wang T, Campbell EM, O’Neill GA, Aitken SN (2012) Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: uncertainties and management applications. Forest Ecology and Management 279, 128–140.
| Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: uncertainties and management applications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wang X, Parisien M-A, Flannigan MD, Parks SA, Anderson KR, Little JM, Taylor SW (2014) The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada. Global Change Biology 20, 2518–2530.
| The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 24700739PubMed |
Whitman E, Batllori E, Parisien M-A, Miller C, Coop JD, Krawchuk MA, Chong GW, Haire SL (2015) The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America. Journal of Biogeography
| The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wiitala MR, Carlton DW (1994) Assessing long-term fire movement risk in wilderness fire management. In ‘Proceedings of the conference on fire and forest meteorology’, 26–28 October 1993, Jekyll Island, GA. (Ed. Society of American Foresters) pp. 123–128. (Jekyll Island, GA).
Wong C, Sandmann H, Dorner B (2004) Historical variability of natural disturbances in British Columbia: a literature review. FORREX–Forest Research Extension Partnership FORREX Series 12. (Kamloops, BC)
Wotton BM, Nock CA, Flannigan MD (2010) Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 253–271.
| Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
