A generic, empirical-based model for predicting rate of fire spread in shrublands
Wendy R. Anderson A , Miguel G. Cruz B N , Paulo M. Fernandes C , Lachlan McCaw D , Jose Antonio Vega E , Ross A. Bradstock F , Liam Fogarty G , Jim Gould B , Greg McCarthy H , Jon B. Marsden-Smedley I , Stuart Matthews B J , Greg Mattingley K , H. Grant Pearce L and Brian W. van Wilgen M
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
B Bushfire Dynamics and Applications, CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
C Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
D Department of Parks and Wildlife, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.
E Forestry Research Center of Lourizan, Pontevedra 36080, Spain.
F Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.
G Fire and Emergency Management Division, Land, Fire and Environment, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Melbourne, Vic. 3002, Australia.
H Fire Ecology and Risk Planning, Strategy and Partnerships, DEPI, Gippsland Region, Orbost, Vic. 3888, Australia.
I Geography and Environmental Studies, School of Land and Food, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.
J Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, University of Sydney, Eveleigh, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
K Parks Victoria, PO Box 91, Foster, Vic. 3960, Australia.
L Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, PO Box 29237, Christchurch 8540, New Zealand.
M Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
N Corresponding author. Email: miguel.cruz@csiro.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(4) 443-460 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14130
Submitted: 24 July 2014 Accepted: 2 December 2014 Published: 12 February 2015
Abstract
A shrubland fire behaviour dataset was assembled using data from experimental studies in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and South Africa. The dataset covers a wide range of heathlands and shrubland species associations and vegetation structures. Three models for rate of spread are developed using 2-m wind speed, a wind reduction factor, elevated dead fuel moisture content and either vegetation height (with or without live fuel moisture content) or bulk density. The models are tested against independent data from prescribed fires and wildfires and found to predict fire spread rate within acceptable limits (mean absolute errors varying between 3.5 and 9.1 m min–1). A simple model to predict dead fuel moisture content is evaluated, and an ignition line length correction is proposed. Although the model can be expected to provide robust predictions of rate of spread in a broad range of shrublands, the effects of slope steepness and variation in fuel quantity and composition are yet to be quantified. The model does not predict threshold conditions for continuous fire spread, and future work should focus on identifying fuel and weather factors that control transitions in fire behaviour.
Additional keywords: fire behaviour, fire prediction.
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