Forecasting fire activity in Victoria, Australia, using antecedent climate variables and ENSO indices
Sarah Harris A B , Neville Nicholls A and Nigel Tapper A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton, Vic. 3800, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: sarah.harris@monash.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 23(2) 173-184 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13024
Submitted: 12 February 2013 Accepted: 22 July 2013 Published: 14 November 2013
Abstract
Climatic variability alters precipitation and temperature patterns globally, and presumably has an effect on regional fire regimes, yet relationships between climate variation and bushfire activity are poorly understood in many fire-prone regions. Such relationships may facilitate forecasting of the potential fire risk for an upcoming season. This paper reviews the interaction between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the weather and fire activity in the fire-prone state of Victoria, Australia. Linear correlations were used to analyse the relationships between ENSO indices, spatially averaged climate variables and fire activity in Victoria from 1972 to 2012. Data were analysed using monthly and seasonal averages and both antecedent and concurrent relationships were explored. Significant relationships were identified between fire activity and climate variables, especially in September to November, the months immediately preceding the fire season. In order of strength, these climate variables are vapour pressure at 1500 hours, vapour pressure at 0900 hours, maximum temperature, rainfall and minimum temperature. Additionally, significant relationships between ENSO indices and fire activity were identified for this period, although these relationships were not as strong as those with climate variables. The potential exists to use ENSO indices and climate variables to forecast an upcoming season’s potential bushfire activity. This is the first study to analyse the ENSO–fire relationship specifically for Victoria and also the first to use Victorian fire activity data (rather than indices of fire weather) as a basis for the comparison with climate and ENSO.
References
Beckage B, Platt WJ, Slocum MG, Panko B (2003) Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida everglades. Ecology 84, 3124–3130.| Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida everglades.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Blanchi R, Lucas C, Leonard J, Finkele K (2010) Meteorological conditions and wildfire-related house loss in Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 914–926.
| Meteorological conditions and wildfire-related house loss in Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
BOM (2009) Bushfire Weather. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/about-bushfire-weather.shtml [Verified 31 July 2013]
Cai W, Cowan T, Raupach M (2009) Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L19710
| Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Crimmins M, Comrie A (2004) Wildfire–climate interactions across Southeast Arizona. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13, 455–466.
| Wildfire–climate interactions across Southeast Arizona.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
DEPI (2012) All fires since 1972 (flat) report – V002. Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Victoria.
Diaz HF, Markgraf V (Eds) (1992) ‘El Niño – Historical and Palaeoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, MA, USA)
Felderhof L, Gillieson D (2006) Comparison of fire patterns and fire frequency in two tropical savanna bioregions. Austral Ecology 31, 736–746.
| Comparison of fire patterns and fire frequency in two tropical savanna bioregions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Harrington JB (1988) A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953–80). Journal of Applied Meteorology 27, 441–452.
| A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953–80).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Griffin GF, Price NF, Portlock HF (1983) Wildfires in the Central Australian Rangelands, 1970–1980. Journal of Environmental Management 17, 311–323.
Harris S, Tapper N, Packham D, Orlove B, Nicholls N (2008) The relationship between summer rain and winter fire activity in northern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 674–684.
| The relationship between summer rain and winter fire activity in northern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Harris S, Anderson W, Kilinc M, Fogarty L (2012) The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale. Natural Hazards 63, 391–415.
| The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jones DA, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 58, 233–248.
Koutsias N, Xanthropoulos G, Founda D, Xystrakis F, Nioti F, Pleniou M, Mallinis G, Arianoutsou M (2013) On the relationship between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010). International Journal of Wildfire Fire 22, 493–507.
| On the relationship between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Love G, Downey A (1986) The prediction of bushfires in central Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine 34, 93–101.
Lucas C (2005) Fire weather history of south-east Australia. (Bushfire CRC) Available at http://www.bushfirecrc.com/managed/resource/fireweatherhistroy.pdf [Verified 31 July 2013]
Lucas C, Hennessy K, Mills G, Bathols J (2007) Bushfire weather in Southeast Australia: Recent trends and projected climate change impacts. Bushfire CRC and Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. (Melbourne)
Luke RH, McArthur AG (1978) ‘Bushfires in Australia.’ (Australian Government Publishing Services: Canberra)
Meyn A, White PS, Buhk C, Jentsch A (2007) Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model. Progress in Physical Geography 31, 287–312.
| Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nicholls N (1984) The southern oscillation, sea-surface-temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian tropical cyclone activity. International Journal of Climatology 4, 661–670.
| The southern oscillation, sea-surface-temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian tropical cyclone activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nicholls N (1991) The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Australian vegetation. Plant Ecology 91, 23–36.
| The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Australian vegetation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nicholls N (1992) Historical El Nino–Southern Oscillation variability in the Australiasian region. In ‘El Nino – Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation’. (Eds HF Diaz, V Markgraf.) pp. 151–173. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge)
Nicholls N, Lucas C (2007) Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 540–546.
| Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Donnell AJ, Boer MM, McCaw WL, Grierson PF (2011) Climatic anomalies drive wildfire occurrence and extent in semi-arid shrublands and woodlands of southwest Australia. Ecosphere 2, 1–15.
Román-Cuesta RM, Gracia M, Retana J (2003) Environmental and human factors influencing fire trends in ENSO and non-ENSO years in tropical Mexico. Ecological Applications 13, 1177–1192.
| Environmental and human factors influencing fire trends in ENSO and non-ENSO years in tropical Mexico.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sturman AP, Tapper NJ (2006) ‘The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand.’ (Oxford University Press: Melbourne)
Swetnam TW, Betancourt JL (1990) Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States. Science 249, 1017–1020.
| Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3cvjt1ygsQ%3D%3D&md5=1b28f47e7c14d26e79423e6c7e9acd0bCAS | 17789609PubMed |
Teague B, McLeod R, Pascoe S (2010) 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission: Final Report. Parliament of Victoria. (Melbourne) Available at http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/commission-reports/final-report [Verified 31 July 2013]
Trenberth KE (1997) The definition of El Nino. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78, 2771–2777.
| The definition of El Nino.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
van der Kaars S, Tapper N, Cook E (2010) Observed relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation, rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera, Maluku, Indonesia. Global Change Biology 16, 1705–1714.
| Observed relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation, rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera, Maluku, Indonesia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Van Wilgen BW, Govender N, Biggs HC, Ntsala D, Funda XN (2004) Response of savanna fire regimes to changing fire-management policies in a large African National Park. Conservation Biology 18, 1533–1540.
| Response of savanna fire regimes to changing fire-management policies in a large African National Park.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Verdon DC, Kiem AS, Franks SW (2004) Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk – eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildfire Fire 13, 165–171.
| Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk – eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increases western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940–943.
| Warming and earlier spring increases western U.S. forest wildfire activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD28XotFCitbo%3D&md5=308417c344ec067b31725c73724340afCAS | 16825536PubMed |
Williams AAJ, Karoly DJ (1999) Extreme fire weather in Australia and the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Australian Meteorological Magazine 48, 15–22.
