Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs
Rachel M. Houtman A D , Claire A. Montgomery A , Aaron R. Gagnon A , David E. Calkin B , Thomas G. Dietterich C , Sean McGregor C and Mark Crowley C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
B USDA Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Sciences Laboratory, 800 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, USA.
C School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
D Corresponding author. Email: rachel.houtman@oregonstate.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(7) 871-882 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF12157
Submitted: 22 September 2012 Accepted: 18 January 2013 Published: 9 May 2013
Abstract
Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.
Additional keywords: bio-economic modelling, forest economics, forest fire policy, wildland fire management.
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