Evaluating regression model estimates of canopy fuel stratum characteristics in four crown fire-prone fuel types in western North America
Miguel G. Cruz A C and Martin E. Alexander BA Bushfire Dynamics and Applications, Climate Adaptation Flagship – CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources and Alberta School of Forest Science and Management, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada.
C Corresponding author. Email: miguel.cruz@csiro.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(2) 168-179 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10066
Submitted: 2 July 2010 Accepted: 2 March 2011 Published: 3 November 2011
Abstract
Two evaluations were undertaken of the regression equations developed by M. Cruz, M. Alexander and R. Wakimoto (2003, International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 39–50) for estimating canopy fuel stratum characteristics from stand structure variables for four broad coniferous forest fuel types found in western North America. The first evaluation involved a random selection of 10 stands each from the four datasets used in the original study. These were in turn subjected to two simulated thinning regimes (i.e. 25 and 50% basal area removal). The second evaluation involved a completely independent dataset for ponderosa pine consisting of 16 stands sampled by T. Keyser and F. Smith (2010, Forest Science 56, 156–165). Evaluation statistics were comparable for the thinning scenarios and independent evaluations. Mean absolute percentage errors varied between 13.8 and 41.3% for canopy base height, 5.3 and 67.9% for canopy fuel load, and 20.7 and 71% for canopy bulk density. Bias errors were negligible. The results of both evaluations clearly show that the stand-level models of Cruz et al. (2003) used for estimating canopy base height, canopy fuel load and canopy bulk density in the assessment of crown fire potential are, considering their simplicity, quite robust.
Additional keywords: average stand height, basal area, canopy base height, canopy bulk density, canopy fuel load, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, mixed conifer, ponderosa pine, stand density.
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