Quantifying the influence of fuel age and weather on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia
Owen F. Price A B and Ross A. Bradstock A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: oprice@uow.edu.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 20(1) 142-151 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10016
Submitted: 1 February 2010 Accepted: 15 June 2010 Published: 14 February 2011
Abstract
Planned fire is used globally to minimise the risk of unplanned fire, but it is important to measure the return for effort in terms of the reduction of risk per unit area of planned fire. Here, we use 30 years of fire mapping from four subregions of the Sydney region to compare the annual extent of unplanned fire with previous planned and unplanned fire. Using linear mixed modelling, we were able to discriminate the relative influence of previous fire, seasonal rainfall and weather during the peak fire season. The mean annual area burnt over the period was 4.11%, comprising 0.53% planned and 3.58% unplanned. We found that weather during the fire season was the most influential factor. Annual rainfall had a modest negative relationship with unplanned fire area. Past fire had some influence, but the relationship implied that approximately three units of planned fire are required to reduce the unplanned fire area by one unit. Managers would need to burn 5.4% per year to halve unplanned fire extent, a ten-fold increase on recent levels. This would increase the total area burnt, and have other effects that need to be considered (from smoke and greenhouse gas emissions, and changes to biodiversity).
Additional keywords: fire management, prescribed fire, return-for-effort, wildfire.
References
Adams R, Simmons D (1994) The impact of fire intensity on litter loads and understorey floristics in an urban fringe dry sclerophyll forest and implications for management. In ‘Fire and Biodiversity: the Effects and Effectiveness of Fire Management’. (Eds RE Sosebee, DB Wester, CM Britton, ED McArthur, SG Kitchen) pp. 21–35. (Biodiversity Unit, Department of Environment, Sport and Territories: Canberra, ACT)Anon. (2002) ‘Report on Inquiry into 2001/2002 Bushfires.’ (Joint Select Committee on Bushfires, New South Wales Parliament: Sydney)
Anon. (2008) ‘Inquiry into the Impact of Public Land Management on Bushfires in Victoria.’ (Victorian Parliament Environment and Natural Resources Committee: Melbourne)
Archibald S, Roy DP, van Wilgen BW, Scholes RJ (2009) What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa. Global Change Biology 15, 613–630.
| What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Baeza MJ, De Luis M, Raventos J, Escarre A (2002) Factors influencing fire behaviour in shrublands of different stand ages and the implications for using prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risk. Journal of Environmental Management 65, 199–208.
| Factors influencing fire behaviour in shrublands of different stand ages and the implications for using prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risk.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BD38vjvFKjtA%3D%3D&md5=ace1293eeb22caae3ee78159c3bcc6d8CAS | 12197080PubMed |
Bessie WC, Johnson EA (1995) The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in sub-Alpine forests. Ecology 76, 747–762.
| The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in sub-Alpine forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Boer MM, Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Sadler RJ, Grierson PF (2008) Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events. Landscape Ecology 23, 899–913..
Boer MM, Sadler RJ, Wittkuhn R, McCaw L, Grierson PF (2009) Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires – evidence from fifty years of active fire management in SW Australian forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 132–142.
| Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires – evidence from fifty years of active fire management in SW Australian forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bradstock R (2003) Protection of people and property: toward and integrated risk management model. In ‘Australia Burning: Fire Ecology, Policy and Management Issues’. (Eds G Cary, D Lindenmeyer, S Dovers)pp. 119–123. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)
Bradstock RA, Gill AM (2001) Living with fire and biodiversity at the urban edge: in search of a sustainable solution to the human protection problem in southern Australia. Journal of Mediterranean Ecology 2, 179–195..
Bradstock RA, Kenny BJ (2003) An application of plant functional types to fire management in a conservation reserve in south-eastern Australia. Journal of Vegetation Science 14, 345–354.
| An application of plant functional types to fire management in a conservation reserve in south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bradstock R, Williams RJ (2009) How might management mitigate emissions from fires? New Phytologist 183, 931–934.
| How might management mitigate emissions from fires?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19702777PubMed |
Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Kenny BJ, Scott J (1998) Bushfire risk at the urban interface estimated from historical weather records: consequences for the use of prescribed fire in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 52, 259–271.
| Bushfire risk at the urban interface estimated from historical weather records: consequences for the use of prescribed fire in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bradstock R, Davies I, Price OF, Cary G (2008) Effects of Climate Change on Bushfire Threats to Biodiversity, Ecosystem Processes and People in the Sydney Region: Final Report to the New South Wales Department of Environment and Climate Change. University of Wollongong, Faculty of Science, Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires. (Wollongong, NSW)
Bradstock RA, Cohn JS, Gill AM, Bedward M, Lucas C (2009) Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 932–943.
| Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Brewer S, Rogers C (2006) Relationships between prescribed burning and wildfire occurrence and intensity in pine–hardwood forests in north Mississippi, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 203–211.
| Relationships between prescribed burning and wildfire occurrence and intensity in pine–hardwood forests in north Mississippi, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) ‘Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a Practical Information-Theoretic Approach.’ (Springer-Verlag: New York)
Cary GJ, Bradstock R (2003) Sensitivity of fire regimes to management. In ‘Australia Burning: Fire Ecology, Policy and Management Issues’. (Eds GJ Cary, D Lindenmeyer, S Dovers) pp. 65–81. (CSIRO: Melbourne)
Cary GJ, Flannigan MD, Keane RE, Bradstock RA, Davies ID, Lenihan JM, Li C, Logan KA, Parsons RA (2009) Relative importance of fuel management, ignition likelihood and weather to area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 147–156.
| Relative importance of fuel management, ignition likelihood and weather to area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Catchpole W (2002) Fire properties and burn patterns in heterogeneous landscapes. In ‘Flammable Australia: the Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent’. (Eds RA Bradstock, JE Williams, MA Gill) pp. 49–75. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)
Cheney P (1994) The effectiveness of fuel reduction burning for fire management. In ‘Fire and Biodiversity: the Effects and Effectiveness of Fire Management’. (Eds RE Sosebee, DB Wester, CM Britton, ED McArthur, SG Kitchen) pp. 9–16. (Biodiversity Unit, Department of Environment, Sport and Territories: Canberra, ACT)
Conroy B (1993) Fuel management strategies for the Sydney region. In ‘The Burning Question: Fire Management in NSW’. (Ed. J Ross) pp. 73–83. (Department of Continuing Education, University of New England: Coffs Harbour, NSW)
Ellis S, Kanowski P, Whelan R (2004) ‘National Inquiry on Bushfire Mitigation and Management.’ (Council of Australian Governments (COAG): Canberra, ACT)
Esplin B, Gill M, Enright N (2003) ‘Report of the Inquiry into the 2002–03 Victorian Bushfires.’ (Department of Premier and Cabinet: Melbourne)
Fernandes PAM (2008) Forest fires in Galicia (Spain): the outcome of unbalanced fire management. Journal of Forest Economics 14, 155–157.
| Forest fires in Galicia (Spain): the outcome of unbalanced fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fernandes PM, Botelho HS (2003) A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 117–128.
| A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney MA (2001) Design of regular landscape fuel treatments for modifying fire growth and behaviour. Forest Science 47, 219–228..
Finney MA, Selia RC, McHugh CW, Ager AA, Bahro B, Agee JK (2007) Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 712–727.
| Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Logan KA, Amiro BD, Skinner WR, Stocks BJ (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1–16.
| Future area burned in Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXhtVyisrzM&md5=9036cc153cf5fd1c42da5d3a5ad13ff1CAS |
Gill AM, Moore PHM (1997) ‘Contemporary Fire Regimes in the Forests of South-western Australia.’ (CSIRO Plant Industry: Canberra)
Goforth BR, Minnich RA (2007) Evidence, exaggeration, and error in historical accounts of chaparral wildfires in California. Ecological Applications 17, 779–790.
| Evidence, exaggeration, and error in historical accounts of chaparral wildfires in California.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17494396PubMed |
Gould JS, McCaw WL, Cheney NP, Ellis PF, Knight IK, Sullivan AL (2007) ‘Project Vesta – Fire in Dry Eucalypt Forest: Fuel Structure, Fuel Dynamics and Fire Behaviour.’ (Ensis–CSIRO and Department of Environment and Conservation: Canberra, ACT)
Hennessy K, Lucas C, Nicholls N, Bathols J, Suppiah R, Ricketts J (2005) Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. (Melbourne)
Hurteau MD, Koch GW, Hungate BA (2008) Carbon protection and fire risk reduction: toward a full accounting of forest carbon offsets. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6, 493–498.
| Carbon protection and fire risk reduction: toward a full accounting of forest carbon offsets.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Johnston FH, Kavanagh AM, Bowman D, Scott RK (2002) Exposure to bushfire smoke and asthma: an ecological study. The Medical Journal of Australia 176, 535–538..
Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ (2001) Historic fire regime in southern California shrublands. Conservation Biology 15, 1536–1548.
| Historic fire regime in southern California shrublands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Keeley JE, Zedler PH (2009) Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model. Ecological Applications 19, 69–94.
| Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19323174PubMed |
Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ, Morais M (1999) Re-examining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes. Science 284, 1829–1832.
| Re-examining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK1MXjvFSqsL4%3D&md5=73400600bed400f4b35060f4bc345892CAS | 10364554PubMed |
Keetch JJ, Byram GM (1968) A drought index for forest fire control. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Paper SE-38. (Asheville, NC)
Keith DA (2004) ‘Ocean Shores to Desert Dunes: the Native Vegetation of New South Wales and the ACT.’ (Department of Environment and Conservation: Hurstville, NSW)
King KJ, Cary GJ, Bradstock RA, Chapman J, Pyrke A, Marsden-Smedley JB (2006) Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 527–540.
| Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Li Y, Campbell EP, Haswell D, Sneeuwjagt RJ, Venables WN (2003) Statistical forecasting of soil dryness index in the south-west of Western Australia. Forest Ecology and Management 183, 147–157.
| Statistical forecasting of soil dryness index in the south-west of Western Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Loehle C (2004) Applying landscape principles to fire hazard reduction. Forest Ecology and Management 198, 261–267.
| Applying landscape principles to fire hazard reduction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Luke RH, McArthur AG (1977) ‘Bushfire in Australia.’ (Australian Government Publishing Service: Canberra, ACT)
Magee L (1990) R2 measures based on Wald and likelihood ratio joint significance tests. The American Statistician 44, 250–253.
| R2 measures based on Wald and likelihood ratio joint significance tests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martell DL, Sun H (2008) The impact of fire suppression, vegetation and weather on the area burned by lightning-caused fires in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38, 1547–1563.
| The impact of fire suppression, vegetation and weather on the area burned by lightning-caused fires in Ontario.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McArthur AG (1967) ‘Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forests.’ (Forestry and Timber Bureau: Canberra, ACT)
McCarthy GJ, Tolhurst KG (2004) Effectiveness of broad-scale fuel reduction burning in Victorian parks and forests. In ‘Bushfire 2004: Earth Wind and Fire – Fusing the Elements’. (Department of Environment and Heritage: Adelaide)
Minnich RA, Chou YH (1997) Wildland fire patch dynamics in the chaparral of southern California and northern Baja California. International Journal of Wildland Fire 7, 221–248.
| Wildland fire patch dynamics in the chaparral of southern California and northern Baja California.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moritz MA (2003) Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology 84, 351–361.
| Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Morrison DA, Buckney RT, Bewick BJ, Cary GJ (1996) Conservation conflicts over burning bush in south-eastern Australia. Biological Conservation 76, 167–175.
| Conservation conflicts over burning bush in south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Narayan C, Fernandes PM, van Brusselen J, Schuck A (2007) Potential for CO2 emissions mitigation in Europe through prescribed burning in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Forest Ecology and Management 251, 164–173.
| Potential for CO2 emissions mitigation in Europe through prescribed burning in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Nicholls N, Lucas C (2007) Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 540–546.
| Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Piñol J, Beven K, Viegas D (2005) Modelling the effect of fire-exclusion and prescribed fire on wildfire size in Mediterranean ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 183, 397–409.
| Modelling the effect of fire-exclusion and prescribed fire on wildfire size in Mediterranean ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Plucinski MP, McCarthy MP, Hollis JJ, Gould JS (2008) Factors influencing the success of initial attack of bushfires in Australia using aircraft. In ‘Fire, Environment and Society: from Research to Practice: 15th AFAC Conference’, 1–3 September 2008, Adelaide. pp. 341–347. (Australian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council: Melbourne)
Price OF, Bradstock R (2010) The effect of fuel age on the spread of fire in sclerophyll forest in the Sydney region of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 35–45.
| The effect of fuel age on the spread of fire in sclerophyll forest in the Sydney region of Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pueyo S (2007) Self-organised criticality and the response of wildland fires to climate change. Climatic Change 82, 131–161.
| Self-organised criticality and the response of wildland fires to climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
R Core Development Team (2007) ‘A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.’ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria)
Salvador R, Lloret F, Pons X, Piñol J (2005) Does fire occurrence modify the probability of being burned again? A null hypothesis test from Mediterranean ecosystems in NE Spain. Ecological Modelling 188, 461–469.
| Does fire occurrence modify the probability of being burned again? A null hypothesis test from Mediterranean ecosystems in NE Spain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Tozer MG, Turner K, Simpson C, Keith DA, Beukers P, MacKenzie B, Tindall D, Pennay C (2006) Native vegetation of southeast NSW: a revised classification and map for the coast and eastern tablelands. NSW Department of Environment and Conservation and NSW Department of Natural Resources. (Sydney)
Verdon DC, Kiem AS, Franks SW (2004) Multidecadal variability of forest fire risk – eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13, 165–171.
| Multidecadal variability of forest fire risk – eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
With KA, Cadaret SJ, Davis C (1999) Movement responses to patch structure in experimental fractal landscapes. Ecology 80, 1340–1353.
| Movement responses to patch structure in experimental fractal landscapes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
