Future climate affects management strategies for maintaining forest restoration treatments
Corinne Diggins A , Peter Z. Fulé A C , Jason P. Kaye B and W. Wallace Covington A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Forestry and Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, PO Box 15018, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
B The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, 116 ASI Building, University Park, PA 16802-3504, USA.
C Corresponding author. Email: pete.fule@nau.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(7) 903-913 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF09109
Submitted: 10 October 2009 Accepted: 2 May 2010 Published: 5 November 2010
Abstract
Forests adapted to frequent-fire regimes are being treated to reduce fuel hazards and restore ecosystem processes. The maintenance of treatment effects under future climates is a critical issue. We modelled forest change under different climate scenarios for 100 years on ponderosa pine landscapes in the south-western USA, comparing management regimes that included prescribed burning, tree cutting, and no-management. We applied the Forest Vegetation Simulator (1) in its standard form, and (2) with modifications of reduced tree growth and increased mortality to simulate the effects of two levels of climate change. Without climate change effects, several management regimes, including the use of frequent burning similar to the historical fire frequency (~5 year), maintained future forest structure within a target range of variability. In contrast, simulations that accounted for climate change effects indicated that burning intervals should be lengthened (~20 year) and future tree thinning should be avoided to minimise forest decline. Although it has been widely predicted that future climate conditions will support more burning (warmer, drier fuels, longer fire season), our modelling suggests that the production of fuels will decline, so there will eventually be a trade-off between increased fire, driven by climate, v. reduced fuel, also driven by climate.
Additional keywords: carbon, climate change, ecological restoration, Forest Vegetation Simulator, ponderosa pine.
References
Allen CD, Breshears DD (1998) Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 95, 14 839–14 842.| Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Allen CD, Savage M, Falk DA, Suckling KF, Swetnam TW, Schulke T, Stacey PB, Morgan P, Hoffman M, Klingel JT (2002) Ecological restoration of south-western ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications 12, 1418–1433.
| Ecological restoration of south-western ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Rich PM, Price KP, Allen CD, Balice RG, Romme WH, Kastens JH, Floyd ML, Belnap J, Anderson JJ, Myers OB, Meyer CW (2005) Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102, 15 144–15 148.
| Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chojnacky D, Moisen G (1993) Converting wood volume to biomass for pinyon and juniper. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, Research Note INT-411. (Ogden, UT)
Chojnacky D, Rogers P (1999) Converting tree diameter measured at root collar to diameter at breast height. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 14, 14–16..
Clary W, Tiedemann A (1987) Fuelwood potential in large-tree Quercus gambelii stand. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 2, 87–90..
Cooper CF (1960) Changes in vegetation, structure, and growth of south-western pine forest since white settlement. Ecological Monographs 30, 129–164.
| Changes in vegetation, structure, and growth of south-western pine forest since white settlement.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Covington WW (2003) The evolutionary and historical context. In ‘Ecological Restoration of South-western Ponderosa Pine Forests’. (Ed. P Friederici) pp. 26–47. (Island Press: Washington, DC)
Covington WW, Fulé PZ, Moore MM, Hart SC, Kolb TE, Mast JN, Sackett SS, Wagner MR (1997) Restoring ecosystem health in ponderosa pine forest of the South-west. Journal of Forestry 95, 23–29..
Crookston NL, Dixon GE (2005) The forest vegetation simulator: a review of its structure, content, and applications. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 49, 60–80.
| The forest vegetation simulator: a review of its structure, content, and applications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dixon GE (Comp.) (2003) Essential FVS: a user’s guide to the Forest Vegetation Simulator. USDA, Forest Service, Forest Management Center. (Fort Collins, CO) Available at http://www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/ftp/fvs/docs/gtr/EssentialFVS.pdf [Verified 26 September 2010]
Dore S, Kolb TE, Montes-Helu M, Sullivan BW, Winslow WD, Hart SC, Kaye JP, Koch GW, Hungate BA (2008) The effect of stand-replacing fire on ecosystem CO2 exchange of ponderosa pine forests in northern Arizona. Global Change Biology 14, 1801–1820.
| The effect of stand-replacing fire on ecosystem CO2 exchange of ponderosa pine forests in northern Arizona.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Edminster CB, Mowrer HT, Mathiasen RL, Schuler TM, Olsen WK, Hawksworth FG (1991) GENGYM: a variable density stand table projection system calibrated for mixed conifer and ponderosa pine stands in the Southwest. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Research Paper RM-297. (Fort Collins, CO)
Elliott KJ, Swank WT (1994) Impacts of drought on tree mortality and growth in a mixed hardwood forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 5, 229–236.
| Impacts of drought on tree mortality and growth in a mixed hardwood forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Friederici P (2003) ‘Ecological Restoration of Southwestern Ponderosa Pine Forests.’ (Island Press: Washington, DC)
Fulé PZ, Laughlin DC (2007) Wildland fire effects on forest structure over an altitudinal gradient, Grand Canyon National Park, USA. Journal of Applied Ecology 44, 136–146.
| Wildland fire effects on forest structure over an altitudinal gradient, Grand Canyon National Park, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fulé PZ, Heinlein TA, Covington WW, Moore MM (2003) Assessing fire regimes on Grand Canyon landscapes with fire scar and fire record data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 129–145.
| Assessing fire regimes on Grand Canyon landscapes with fire scar and fire record data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fulé PZ, Crouse JE, Cocke AE, Moore MM, Covington WW (2004) Changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior 1880–2040: Grand Canyon, Arizona. Ecological Modelling 175, 231–248.
| Changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior 1880–2040: Grand Canyon, Arizona.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Germaine HL, Germaine SS (2002) Forest restoration treatment effects on the nesting success of Western Bluebirds (Sialia mexicana). Restoration Ecology 10, 362–367.
| Forest restoration treatment effects on the nesting success of Western Bluebirds (Sialia mexicana).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gitlin AR, Sthultz CM, Bowker MA, Stumpf S, Paxton KL, Kennedy K, Muñoz A, Bailey JK, Whitham TG (2006) Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought. Conservation Biology 20, 1477–1486.
| Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17002765PubMed |
Grier C, Elliott K, McCullough D (1992) Biomass distribution and productivity of Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma woodlands of north-central Arizona. Forest Ecology and Management 50, 331–350.
| Biomass distribution and productivity of Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma woodlands of north-central Arizona.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hjerpe E, Abrams J, Becker DR (2009) Socioeconomic barriers and the role of biomass utilization in south-western ponderosa restoration. Ecological Research 27, 169–177.
| Socioeconomic barriers and the role of biomass utilization in south-western ponderosa restoration.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hurteau M, North M (2009) Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7, 409–414.
| Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Iverson LR, Prasad AM (2001) Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4, 186–199.
| Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kaye JP, Hart SC, Fulé PZ, Covington WW, Moore MM, Kaye MW (2005) Initial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous fluxes following ponderosa pine restoration treatments. Ecological Applications 15, 1581–1593.
| Initial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous fluxes following ponderosa pine restoration treatments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Keane RE, Cary GJ, Davies ID, Flannigan MD, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Lenihan JM, Li C, Rupp TS (2004) A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 179, 3–27.
| A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Keeley JE (2006) Fire management impacts on invasive plants in the western United States. Conservation Biology 20, 375–384.
| Fire management impacts on invasive plants in the western United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 16903098PubMed |
Keyser CE, Dixon GE (Comps) (2010) Central Rockies variant overview – Forest Vegetation Simulator. Internal Rep., USDA, Forest Service, Forest Management Service Center. (Fort Collins, CO) Available at http://www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/ftp/fvs/docs/overviews/crvar.pdf [Verified 26 September 2010]
Klos RJ, Wang GG, Bauerle WL, Rieck JR (2009) Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the south-east USA: an analysis using forest health and monitoring data. Ecological Applications 19, 699–708.
| Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the south-east USA: an analysis using forest health and monitoring data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19425432PubMed |
Lieberg JB, Rixon TF, Dodwell A (1904) Forest conditions in the San Francisco Mountains Forest Reserve, Arizona. US Geological Survey, Professional Paper 22. (Washington, DC)
McDowell NG, Adams HG, Bailey JD, Hess M, Kolb TE (2006) Homeostatic maintenance of ponderosa pine gas exchange in response to stand density changes. Ecological Applications 16, 1164–1182.
| Homeostatic maintenance of ponderosa pine gas exchange in response to stand density changes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 16827010PubMed |
McKenzie D, Gedalof Z, Peterson DL, Mote P (2004) Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18, 890–902.
| Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17, 2145–2151.
| Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 18213958PubMed |
Minor CO (1964) Site-index curves for young-growth ponderosa pine in northern Arizona. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experimental Station, Research Note RM-37. (Fort Collins, CO)
Monroe ME, Converse SJ (2006) The effects of early-season and late-season prescribed fires on small mammals in a Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest. Forest Ecology and Management 236, 229–240.
| The effects of early-season and late-season prescribed fires on small mammals in a Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moore K, Davis B, Duck T (2003) Mt Trumbull ponderosa pine ecosystem restoration project. In ‘Proceedings of the Fire, Fuel Treatments, and Ecological Restoration Conference’, 16–18 April 2002, Fort Collins, CO. (Tech. Eds PN Omi, LA Joyce) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Proceedings RMRS-P-29, pp. 117–132. (Fort Collins, CO)
Moore MM, Huffman DW, Fulé PZ, Covington WW, Crouse JE (2004) Comparison of historical and contemporary forest structure and composition on permanent plots in southwestern ponderosa pine forests. Forest Science 50, 162–176..
Mueller RC, Scudder CM, Porter ME, Trotter T, Gehring CA, Whitham TG (2005) Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: evidence for long-term vegetation shifts. Journal of Ecology 93, 1085–1093.
| Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: evidence for long-term vegetation shifts.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Robinson AP, Monserud RA (2003) Criteria for comparing the adaptability of forest growth models. Forest Ecology and Management 172, 53–67.
| Criteria for comparing the adaptability of forest growth models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Roccaforte JP, Fulé PZ, Covington WW (2008) Landscape-scale changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior following ponderosa pine restoration treatments. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 293–303.
| Landscape-scale changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior following ponderosa pine restoration treatments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Roccaforte JP, Fulé PZ, Covington WW (2009) Monitoring landscape-scale ponderosa pine restoration treatment implementation and effectiveness. Restoration Ecology. [Published online 2009]
Savage M (1991) Structural dynamics of a south-western pine forest under chronic human influence. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 81, 271–289.
| Structural dynamics of a south-western pine forest under chronic human influence.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Savage M, Brown PM, Feddema J (1996) The role of climate in a pine forest regeneration pulse in the south-western United States. Ecoscience 3, 310–318..
Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G, Huang H-P, Harnik N, Leetmaa A, Lau N-C, Li C, Velez J, Naik N (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in south-western North America. Science 316, 1181–1184.
| Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in south-western North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stage AR (2002) Using FVS and its fire and fuels extension in the context of uncertain climate. In ‘Second Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference’, 12–14 February 2002, Fort Collins, CO. (Comps NL Crookston, RN Havis) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Proceedings RMRS-P-25, pp. 104–107. (Fort Collins, CO)
Stephens SL (2005) Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 213–222.
| Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Swetnam TW, Baisan CH (1996) Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since AD 1700. In ‘Fire Effects in Southwestern Forests: Proceedings of the Second La Mesa Fire Symposium’, 29–31 March 1994, Los Alamos, NM. (Ed. CD Allen) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, General Technical Report RM-GTR-286, pp. 11–32. (Los Alamos, NM)
Waltz AEM, Fulé PZ, Covington WW, Moore MM (2003) Diversity in ponderosa pine forest structure following ecological restoration treatments. Forest Science 49, 885–900..
Waring KM, Reboletti DM, Mork LA, Huang C-H, Hofstetter RW, Garcia AM, Fulé PZ, Davis TS (2009) Modeling the impacts of two bark beetle species under warming climate in the south-western USA: ecological and economic consequences. Environmental Management
| Modeling the impacts of two bark beetle species under warming climate in the south-western USA: ecological and economic consequences.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Weng C, Jackson ST (1999) Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation history and paleoclimate of the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 153, 179–201.
| Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation history and paleoclimate of the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increases western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940–943.
| Warming and earlier spring increases western US forest wildfire activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Western Regional Climate Center (2008) RAWS for Arizona. Available at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wraws/azF.html [Verified 26 September 2010]
White AS (1985) Presettlement regeneration patterns in a south-western ponderosa pine stand. Ecology 66, 589–594.
| Presettlement regeneration patterns in a south-western ponderosa pine stand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Woodall CW, Miles PD, Vissage JS (2005) Determining maximum stand density index in mixed species stands for strategic-scale stocking assessments. Forest Ecology and Management 216, 367–377.
| Determining maximum stand density index in mixed species stands for strategic-scale stocking assessments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
