The BlueSky smoke modeling framework
Narasimhan K. Larkin A E , Susan M. O’Neill B , Robert Solomon A , Sean Raffuse C , Tara Strand A , Dana C. Sullivan C , Candace Krull A , Miriam Rorig A , Janice Peterson D and Sue A. Ferguson A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A AirFire Team, US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N 34th St, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103, USA.
B Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA, 1201 NE Lloyd Blvd, Suite 1000, Portland, OR 97232, USA.
C Sonoma Technology, Inc., 1455 N McDowell Blvd, Suite D, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA.
D US Forest Service, Region 6, 400 N 34th St, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103, USA.
E Corresponding author. Email: larkin@fs.fed.us
International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(8) 906-920 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07086
Submitted: 28 June 2007 Accepted: 7 November 2008 Published: 9 December 2009
Abstract
Smoke from fire is a local, regional and often international issue that is growing in complexity as competition for airshed resources increases. BlueSky is a smoke modeling framework designed to help address this problem by enabling simulations of the cumulative smoke impacts from fires (prescribed, wildland, and agricultural) across a region. Versions of BlueSky have been implemented in prediction systems across the contiguous US, and land managers, air-quality regulators, incident command teams, and the general public can currently obtain BlueSky-based predictions of smoke impacts for their region. A highly modular framework, BlueSky links together a variety of state-of-the-art models of meteorology, fuels, consumption, emissions, and air quality, and offers multiple model choices at each modeling step. This modularity also allows direct comparison between similar component models. This paper presents the overall model framework Version 2.5 – the component models, how they are linked together, and the results from case studies of two wildfires. Predicted results are affected by the specific choice of modeling pathway. With the pathway chosen, the modeled output generally compares well with plume shape and extent as observed by satellites, but underpredicts surface concentrations as observed by ground monitors. Sensitivity studies show that knowledge of fire behavior can greatly improve the accuracy of these smoke impact calculations.
Acknowledgements
BlueSky was originally conceived by the late Sue Ferguson, whose energy and enthusiasm helped bring it to fruition. The present research was supported by the National Fire Plan, the Joint Fire Science Program, USFS Fire and Aviation Management, the US Department of Interior, USFS Region 6, the US EPA, and the National Aerospace and Space Administration. The authors wish to acknowledge the special efforts of Wes Adkins, Casey Anderson, Ray Peterson, Jeanne Hoadley, Trent Piepho, Don Matheny, Bob Kotchenruther, and Rob Wilson. Special thanks go to the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Consortium, the BlueSkyRAINS-West Demonstration Project, Cliff Mass and the Northwest Regional Modeling Consortium, and the FCAMMS personnel for their input and collaboration; to Al Riebau and Peter Lahm for their guidance; and to Sheila Kirby for editorial suggestions and support.
References
Battye W, Battye R (2002) Development of emissions inventory methods for wildland fire. EPA Contract No. 68-D-98–046.
Briggs GA (1975) Plume rise predictions. Air Resources Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Laboratory, Annual Report ATDL-76/14, pp. 425–478. (Oak Ridge, TN)
Byun DW , Schere K
(2006) Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System. Applied Mechanics Reviews 59, 51–77.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cohen JD, Deeming JE (1985) The National Fire-Danger Rating System: basic equations. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, General Technical Report GTR-PSW-82. (Berkeley, CA)
Draxler RR, Hess GD (1997) Description of the HYSPLIT-4 modeling system. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL ARL-224. Available at http://www.villasmunta.it/pdf/arl-224.pdf [Verified 25 September 2009]
EPA (1999a) Regional haze regulations; final rule. US Federal Register, vol. 64, 126, 199940 CFR 51.
EPA (1999b) Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System. EPA/600/R-99/030. Available at http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/CMAQ/CMAQscienceDoc.html [Verified 17 September 2009]
Ferguson SA (2003) Real-time mesoscale model forecasts for fire and smoke management: 2003. In ‘5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology’, Orlando, FL. (American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA)
Frost C (1998) Presettlement fire frequency regimes of the United States: a first approximation. In ‘Fire in Ecosystem Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Suppression to Prescription. Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference Proceedings, No. 20’. (Eds TL Pruden, LA Brennan) pp. 70–81. (Tall Timbers Research Station: Tallahassee, FL)
Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (1996) Report of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission to the United States Environmental Protection Agency. June 1996. Available at http://www.wrapair.org/WRAP/reports/GCVTCFinal.PDF [Verified 25 September 2009]
Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR (1994) A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-398+STR. (Boulder, CO)
Hardy C, Menakis JP, Long DG, Garner JL (1998) FMI/WESTAR emissions inventory and spatial data for the western United States. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory. (Missoula, MT)
Jain R, Vaughan J, Heitkamp K, Ramos C, Claiborn C, Schreuder M, Schaaf M , Lamb B
(2007) Development of the ClearSky smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning in the Pacific Northwest. Atmospheric Environment 41, 6745–6761.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
CAS |
Liu Y, Achtemeier G, Goodrick G (2006) Modeling air quality effects of prescribed burn in Georgia with CMAQ-Daysmoke. In ‘Proceedings of the Workshop on Agricultural Air Quality, ESA’, Potomac, MD. (Eds VP Aneja, WH Schlesinger, R Knighton, G Jennings, D Niyogi, W Gilliam, CS Duke) p. 129.1353. (Ecological Society of America: Washington, DC)
Mass CF, Albright MF, Ovens D, Steed R, Grimit E, Eckel T, Lamb B, Vaughan J, Westrick K, Storck P, Coleman B, Hill C, Maykut N, Gilroy M, Ferguson S, Yetter J, Sierchio JM, Bowman C, Stender D, Wilson R , Brown W
(2003) Regional environmental prediction over the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84, 1353–1366.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Neill SM, Hoadley J, Ferguson SA, Solomon R, Peterson J, Larkin N, Peterson R, Wilson R, Matheny D (2005) Applications of the BlueSkyRAINS Smoke Prediction System. EM – The Magazine for Environmental Mangers (September), 20–23.
Pouliot G, Pierce T, Benjey W, O’Neill SM, Ferguson SA (2005) Wildfire emission modeling: integrating BlueSky and SMOKE. In ‘14th International Emission Inventory Conference’, 11–14 April 2005, Las Vegas, NV. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei14/session12/pouliot.pdf [Verified 14 November 2009]
Pyne SJ (1982) ‘Fire in America: Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire.’ (Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ)
Pyne SJ (2001) ‘Fire: a Brief History.’ (Weyerhauser Environmental Books, University of Washington Press: Seattle, WA)
Reinhardt ED, Keane RE, Brown JK (1997) First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM4.0, User’s Guide. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, General Technical Report INT-GTR-344. (Ogden, UT)
Rew RK, Davis GP, Emmerson S, Davies H (1997) ‘NetCDF User’s Guide for C, an Interface for Data Access, Version 3.’ (Unidata Program Center: Boulder, CO)
Rolph GD, Draxler RR, Stein AF, Taylor A, Ruminski MG, Kondragunta S, Zeng J, Huang H, Manikin G, McQueen JT , Davidson PM
(2009) Description and verification of the NOAA smoke forecasting system: the 2007 fire season. Weather and Forecasting 24, 361–378.
| Crossref |
Ruminski M, Kondragunta S, Draxler R, Zeng J (2006) Recent changes to the Hazard Mapping System. In ‘EPA Online Proceedings: 15th International Emission Inventory Conference – Reinventing Inventories – New Ideas in New Orleans’, New Orleans, LA. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei15/session10/ruminiski.pdf [Verified 17 September 2009]
Sandberg DV, Peterson JL (1984) A source strength model for prescribed fires in coniferous logging slash. In ‘Proceedings, 21st annual meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, Pacific Northwest International Section’, 12–14 November 1984, Portland, OR. (Air Pollution Control Association: Pittsburgh, PA)
Scire JG, Strimaitis DG, Yamartino RJ (2000a) ‘A User’s Guide for the CALPUFF Dispersion Model (version 5).’ (Earth Tech Inc.: Concord, MA)
Scire JS, Robe FR, Fernau ME, Yamartino RJ (2000b) ‘A User’s Guide for the CALMET Meteorological Model (version 5).’ (Earth Tech Inc.: Concord, MA)
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Wang W, Powers JG (2005) A description of the advanced research WRF Version 2. National Center for Atmospheric Research Technical Note NCAR/TN-468+STR. (Boulder, CO)
Spokane Co. (2003) In the Superior Court of the State of Washington in and for the County of Spokane. Memorandum Opinion Re: Injunctive Relief. Case No.: 03–2-05036–3. Available at http://www.spokanecounty.org/data/superiorcourt/general/pdf/1535132582003.pdf [Verified 2 October 2009]
Stein AF, Rolph GD, Draxler RR, Stunder B , Ruminski M
(2009) Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecast: model sensitivity to the injection height. Weather and Forecasting 24, 379–394.
| Crossref |
USDA–USDI (2000) Managing the impact of wildfires on communities and the environment. A report to the President in response to the wildfires of 2000. USDA and USDI. Available at http://forestsandrangelands.gov/reports/documents/2001/8-20-en.pdf [Verified 12 November 2009]
Vaughan J, Lamb B, Wilson R, Bowman C, Kaminsky C, Otterson S, Boyer M, Mass C, Albright M, Koenig J, Collingwood A, Gilroy M , Maykut N
(2004) A numerical daily air-quality forecast system for the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85, 549–561.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Western Regional Air Partnership and Western Governors Association (2005) 2002 Fire Emission Inventory for the WRAP Region – Phase II. Project No. 178–6. Available at http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7PhaseII.html [Verified 25 September 2009]
Wiedinmyer C, Quayle B, Geron C, Belote A, McKenzie D, Zhang X, O’Neill SM , Wynne KK
(2006) Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling. Atmospheric Environment 40, 3419–3432.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
CAS |
Wotawa G , Trainer M
(2000) The influence of Canadian forest fires on pollutant concentrations in the United States. Science 288, 324–328.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
CAS |
PubMed |
