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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 16(2)

Modelling the probability of sustained flaming: predictive value of fire weather index components compared with observations of site weather and fuel moisture conditions

Jennifer L. Beverly A C and B. Mike Wotton B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada.

B Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada.

C Corresponding author. Email: jbeverly@nrcan.gc.ca

International Journal of Wildland Fire 16(2) 161-173 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06072
Published: 30 April 2007

Abstract

We investigated the likelihood that short-duration sustained flaming would develop in forest ground fuels that had direct contact with a small and short-lived flame source. Data from 1027 small-scale experimental test fires conducted in field trials at six sites in British Columbia and the North-West Territories between 1958 and 1961 were used to develop logistic regression models for ten fuel categories that represent unique combinations of forest cover, ground fuel type, and in some cases, season. Separate models were developed using two subsets of independent variables: (1) weather variables and fuel moisture measurements taken at the site of the test fire; and (2) Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system components calculated from weather observations recorded at a nearby station. Results indicated that models developed with FWI system components were as effective as models developed with site variables at predicting the probability of short-duration sustained flaming in most fuel categories. FWI system components were not useful for predicting sustained flaming in spring grass fuels and had limited usefulness for modelling the probability of sustained flaming in aspen leaf ground fuels during summer conditions. For all other fuel categories, FWI system components were highly effective substitutes for site variables for modelling the probability of sustained flaming.

Additional keywords: Canada, fire behaviour, fire danger, fire hazard, logistic regression, probability of ignition.


Acknowledgements

We thank the many forest fire researchers with the Canadian federal government who participated in the design, development, and implementation of the small-scale test fire program and/or contributed to the maintenance of the test fire database over the past 70 years. Special thanks to B. Todd (Canadian Forest Service) for ensuring that key historical test fire documents were preserved to support future analysis of the test fire data. We thank T. Lynham (Canadian Forest Service), two anonymous reviewers and our assigning editor for providing helpful comments on the manuscript.


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1 A more detailed report describing the test fire procedures and experimental sites is being prepared: J. L. Beverly and B. M. Wotton: The Canadian small-scale test fire database: historical overview and data documentation. Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Information Report (in preparation).

2 Unpublished report. Lynham TJ, Martell DL (1989) Preliminary report on a national database of experimental fire in Canada. In ‘Proc. National Workshop on Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction’ May 3–4, 1989, Forestry Canada.




Appendix 1.  Temperature, relative humidity, vapour pressure deficit, and fuel moisture content for the two test fire outcomes: no sustained flaming and sustained flaming
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Appendix 2.  FWI component values that exceeded median values (calculated for all fires and for all fuel categories) for the two test fire outcomes: no sustained flaming and sustained flaming
BUI, Buildup Index; DC, Drought Code; DMC, Duff Moisture Code; FFMC, diurnally adjusted Fine Fuel Moisture Code; FWI, Fire Weather Index calculated from the Buildup Index and diurnally adjusted ISI; ISI, diurnally adjusted Initial Spread Index calculated from diurnally adjusted FFMC and the 10-m open wind speed
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