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Assessing and Projecting the Global Impacts of Female Infertility: A 1990-2040 Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Hanjin Wang, Bengui Jiang

Abstract

Background: This study aims to assess the global burden of female infertility from 1990 to 2040. Methods: Data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with female infertility were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were utilized to predict trends for the period spanning from 2022 to 2040. Results: The global burden of female infertility is expected to increase significantly, with the age-standardized DALY rate projected to reach 19.92 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 18.52, 21.33) by 2040. The projected Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) for the age-standardized DALY rate from 2022 to 2040 is expected to be 1.42, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.3951 to 1.4418. This is in contrast to the EAPC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.5391, 0.8789) observed from 1990 to 2021 Central Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the highest age-standardized rate at 29.37 (95% UI: 24.58, 34.16), while Australasia is expected to have the lowest at 0.78 (95% UI: 0.72, 0.84). Age-specific projections show a consistent decline in infertility rates across all age groups. Countries like Kenya, Chad, and Peru exhibit EAPCs exceeding 9.00, while Mali and South Africa show significant negative EAPCs. Correlation analysis indicates that regions with higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) generally have lower female infertility burdens, with notable trends observed in Europe and Asia. Conclusion: The projected global burden of female infertility is expected to increase significantly from 2021 to 2040, with notable regional disparities. Central Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are anticipated to experience higher burdens, while overall rates are projected to decrease across different age groups.

SH24237  Accepted 16 February 2025

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