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RECOGNISING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS OF SOUTHERN BEECHES NOTHOFAGUS SPP. IN NEW GUINEA UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Zahra Salsabila Rosmaitsa , Teguh Husodo, Angga Yudaputra

Abstract

Context. The island of New Guinea holds the largest diversity of Nothofagus species. Climate change will affect the distribution and existence of Nothofagus in the future. Aims. Therefore, there is a need for research efforts on how climate change influences the distribution patterns of Nothofagus in New Guinea. The objective of this study is to understand climate change's impact on suitable distribution areas of Nothofagus in New Guinea. Methods. The Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used to understand the distribution change of the Nothofagus in New Guinea under climate change. Occurrence records and several environmental layers including climate, topography, and edaphic were used as inputs of the model prediction. The CNRM-CM6-1-HR Global Climate Model (GCM) with climatic scenarios, Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5, were used to understand the future distribution of Nothofagus under future climate change. Key results. We found 328 presence records from 14 species of Nothofagus spp. in New Guinea. We also found the predicted areas using the SSP 1-2.6 climate scenario reduced by about 9.24% and the SSP 5-8.5 climate scenario reduced by 20.93% for suitable and very suitable areas compared to the current predictive distribution. Conclusions. The predictive model shows that the future potential distribution of Nothofagus spp. will decrease compared to the current potential distribution under climate change. Implications. Knowing how future climate influences the distribution patterns of Nothofagus spp., will be useful for protecting these species in the future.

PC24055  Accepted 17 February 2025

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