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Resilience Assessment of the Water Supply and Demand Resilience in the Yellow River Basin Based on Integrated Optimization Weighting—Improved Grey-Target Model

Hong Lv, Xinlei Zhao, Dengming Yan , Wenxiu Shang, Xiaokang Zheng

Abstract

Context. Due to the combined impacts of global climate change and intensive human activities, the water resources supply-demand imbalance has become prominent, particularly in the Yellow River Basin. Aims. This study aims to accurately assess the changes in water resources supply and demand resilience over the past few decades. Methods. This study examines the resources, economy, society, and ecology of both the supply and demand aspects in assessing the resilience of water supply and demand. The composite evaluation model based on integrated optimization weighting and an improved gray-target model was constructed. Key results. Using the Yellow River Basin as an example, From 2011 to 2020, the resilience index of the water resources supply-demand system (RIWRSS) in the Yellow River Basin increased significantly by 69.4%; Among the 12 indicators in the Yellow River Basin, the contribution proportion of the inhibiting factors decreased by 3.7%, while the contribution of the driving factors increased by 70.9%. Conclusions. the present study provides insights into evaluating the RIWRSS and highlights resilience disparities between the supply and demand sides in the Yellow River Basin. Implications. This study expects to provide evidence for the improvement of water supply conditions of water resources in the Yellow River Basin.

MF24188  Accepted 03 December 2024

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