Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation patterns in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin
Yang Xiao A B C , Ran Gu A , Qiang Zhou C , Mengyang Chen C , Taotao Zhang C , Chen Xu![https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8008-2963](/media/client/orcid_16x16.png)
A
B
C
D
Abstract
With escalating global climate change, regional flood disasters have become increasingly prevalent. Precipitation, as a primary influencing factor, has garnered significant attention.
This study is based on precipitation data to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (MLYB), trying to explore more concise methods for precipitation forecasting.
Statistical methods were employed to analyse historical precipitation patterns, followed by forecasting future trends using statistical time series models.
Precipitation in the MLYB exhibited a decreasing trend during 1961–2010, which shifted to an increasing trend after 2011, becoming more pronounced since 2017. Precipitation patterns in the MLYB were clearly increasing in the east and decreasing in the west, with the Taihu Basin showing the greatest rise. The ARIMA model predicted a significant increase in precipitation after 2022.
In recent years, precipitation in the MLYB has significantly increased, especially in downstream areas. Although the ARIMA model offers an effective and reasonably simple method for short-term forecast, it struggles with complex terrain influences.
These findings provide a theoretical basis for flood prevention in the MLYB, as well as a reference for precipitation prediction simulations in data-limited regions.
Keywords: ARIMA, climate change, evolution, flooding, fresh water, hydrology, precipitation, simulations.
References
Abbas AS (2023) Watershed delineation from DEM by model builder in ArcGIS. Civil Engineering Journal 9, 2796-2805.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Arianti I, Rafani M, Fitriani N, Nizar (2023) Spatial modeling of flood-vulnerability as basic data for flood mitigation. Civil Engineering Journal 9, 787-798.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Babu CN, Reddy BE (2014) A moving-average filter based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model for forecasting time series data. Applied Soft Computing 23, 27-38.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Chen J, Li Y, Xiong B, Wang Y, Zhou S, Huang Y (2023) Comparison of moisture sources of summer precipitation in 1998 and 2020 in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin. International Journal of Climatology 43(8), 3493-3505.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Ding Y, Liu Y, Hu Z-Z (2021) The record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and associated atmospheric circulation and tropical SST anomalies. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 38(12), 1980-1993.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Duan W, He B, Nover D, Fan J, Yang G, Chen W, Meng H, Liu C (2016) Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century. Natural Hazards 82, 401-413.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Ducić V, Burić D, Luković J, Stanojević G (2011) ПРОМЕНЕ КОЛИЧИНЕ ПАДАВИНА У ПОДГОРИЦИ У ПЕРИОДУ 1951–2010. [The changes of precipitation in Podgorica for period 1951–2010]. ГЛАСНИК СРПСКОГ ГЕОГРАФСKОГ ДРУШТВА [Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society] 91, 51-70 [In Serbian].
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Ghosh S, Das D, Kao S-C, Ganguly AR (2012) Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 2, 86-91.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Giorgi F, Raffaele F, Coppola E (2019) The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections. Earth System Dynamics 10, 73-89.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Guayjarernpanishk P, Bussababodhin P, Chiangpradit M (2023) The partial L-moment of the four kappa distribution. Emerging Science Journal 7, 1116-1125.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Huang D, Zhang R, Huo Z, Mao F, E Y, Zheng W (2012) An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method. Natural Hazards 64(2), 1575-1586.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55, 484-496.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Lai Y, Dzombak DA (2020) Use of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast near-term regional temperature and precipitation. Weather and Forecasting 35, 959-976.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Li Y, Yan D, Peng H, Xiao S (2021) Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin. Atmospheric Research 253, 105406.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Li X, Zhang K, Gu P, Feng H, Yin Y, Chen W, Cheng B (2021) Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects. Science of The Total Environment 760, 144244.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Liu Y, Wang B, Zhan H, Fan Y, Zha Y, Hao Y (2017) Simulation of nonstationary spring discharge using time series models. Water Resources Management 31(15), 4875-4890.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Liu Y, Wu H, Wang J, Long M (2023) Non-stationary transformers: exploring the stationarity in time series forecasting. arXiv e-prints 2022, 2205.14415 (v4) [Preprint, uploaded 24 November 2023].
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Mallakpour I, Villarini G (2016) A simulation study to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test to detect abrupt changes in mean. Hydrological Sciences Journal 61(2), 245-254.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE, Collins DA, Daw G, Finet A, Gunawan D, Inape K, Isobe H, Kestin TS, Lefale P, Leyu CH, Lwin T, Maitrepierre L, Ouprasitwong N, Page CM, Pahalad J, Plummer N, Salinger MJ, Suppiah R, Tran VL, Trewin B, Tibig I, Yee D (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. International Journal of Climatology 21(3), 269-284.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Martinez-Villalobos C, Neelin JD (2018) Shifts in precipitation accumulation extremes during the warm season over the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 8586-8595.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Mathbout S, Lopez-Bustins JA, Royé D, Martin-Vide J, Bech J, Rodrigo FS (2018) Observed changes in daily precipitation extremes at annual timescale over the eastern mediterranean during 1961–2012. Pure and Applied Geophysics 175(11), 3875-3890.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Pan C, Zhao J, Chen H, Kang Z, Chen S, Jin X (2023) The characteristics of the Yangtze flooding during 1998 and 2020 based on atmospheric water tracing. Geophysical Research Letters 50(19), e2023GL104195.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Ran Q, Wang J, Chen X, Liu L, Li J, Ye S (2022) The relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and precipitation in flood generation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26, 4919-4931.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Shen B, Zhang S, Yang H, Wang K, Feng G (2012) 2011年春夏季长江中下游地区旱涝急转特征分析 [Analysis of characteristics of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and summer in 2011]. 物理学报 [Acta Physica Sinica] 61, 109202 [In Chinese with title and abstract in Chinese and English online].
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Singh D, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B, Diffenbaugh NS (2013) Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high-resolution, ensemble climate model experiment. Advancing Earth and space sciences 118(13), 7063-7086.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Su B, Gemmer M, Jiang T (2008) Spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin. Quaternary International 186(1), 22-31.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Tabari H, Willems P (2018) Lagged influence of Atlantic and Pacific climate patterns on European extreme precipitation. Scientific Reports 8(1), 5748.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Wang S, Yuan X (2018) Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22(8), 4201-4211.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wang J, Sheng Y, Tong TSD (2014) Monitoring decadal lake dynamics across the Yangtze Basin downstream of Three Gorges Dam. Remote Sensing of Environment 152, 251-269.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wang W-C, Chau K-W, Xu D-M, Chen X-Y (2015) Improving forecasting accuracy of annual runoff time series using ARIMA based on EEMD decomposition. Water Resources Management 29(8), 2655-2675.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wang Z, Xiao Y, Zhang T, Xu C, Gu R, Liu J (2023) Effects of a proposed hydraulic project on the surface water connectivity in Poyang Lake floodplain system, China: numerical simulation and geostatistical analysis. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 50, 101593.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wilson D, Hisdal H, Lawrence D (2010) Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections. Journal of Hydrology 394(3-4), 334-346.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wu H-TJ, Lau WK-M (2016) Detecting climate signals in precipitation extremes from TRMM (1998–2013) – increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes during the ‘global warming hiatus’. Geophysical Research Letters 43(3), 1340-1348.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Yang X (2012) Analysis and prediction of water diversion from the Yangtze River in the Pudong new district based on SPSS. South-to-North Water Diversion and Water Science & Technology 10(4), 70-72.
| Google Scholar |
Yang P, Zhang S, Xia J, Zhan C, Cai W, Wang W, Luo X, Chen N, Li J (2022) Analysis of drought and flood alternation and its driving factors in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change. Atmospheric Research 270, 106087.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Yin H, Li C (2001) Human impact on floods and flood disasters on the Yangtze River. Geomorphology 41(2-3), 105-109.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Yu F, Chen Z, Ren X, Yang G (2009) Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River, China: characteristics and explanations. Geomorphology 113(3-4), 210-216.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Zhang Q, Liu C, Xu C-Y, Xu Y, Jiang T (2006) Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin, China. Journal of Hydrology 324(1-4), 255-265.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Zhou Z-Q, Xie S-P, Zhang R (2021) Historic Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118(12), e2022255118.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |