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Marine and Freshwater Research Marine and Freshwater Research Society
Advances in the aquatic sciences
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Spatio-temporal variations of habitat quality in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay, based on LUCC and simulation

Yu He https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7757-5645 A and Wanzheng Ai https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8774-2231 B *
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A School of Marine Science and Technology, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, 316022, PR China.

B School of Naval Architecture and Maritime, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, 316022, PR China.

* Correspondence to: aiwanzheng@126.com

Handling Editor: Yong Xiao

Marine and Freshwater Research 75, MF23242 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF23242
Submitted: 7 December 2023  Accepted: 17 April 2024  Published: 28 May 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing

Abstract

Context

Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development.

Aims

In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities.

Methods

This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the InVEST model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the PLUS model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed.

Key results

During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km2, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in ‘high–high’ cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052.

Conclusions

The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities.

Implications

These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.

Keywords: Greater Area around Hangzhou Bay, habitat quality, land use-cover change, InVEST model, LUCC, PLUS model, scenario simulation, spatial autocorrelation.

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