Predicting the current and future suitable-habitat distribution of tropical adult and juvenile targeted fishes in multi-sector fisheries of central Queensland, Australia
Debbie A. Chamberlain A B * , Hugh P. Possingham A and Stuart R. Phinn BA Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
B Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
Marine and Freshwater Research 74(4) 357-374 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21273
Submitted: 20 September 2021 Accepted: 15 December 2022 Published: 31 January 2023
© 2023 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)
Abstract
Context: Coastal and estuarine finfish species are responding to human-induced climate change by altering their distributions. In tropical regions, the species mostly affected by warming have limited acclimation capacity or live close to their upper thermal limits. Consequently, coastal fish assemblages may dramatically contract in range, experience declining population abundance or local extinction.
Aim: Here we use two different predictive modelling techniques that cope with non-linear empirical relationships between responses and environmental predictors to investigate distribution change.
Methods: The habitat-suitability models we use are the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the generalised additive model (GAM). We built the models for the period 2004–2019 with environmental data relevant to coastal systems. We incorporated climate change at current conditions, near future (2015–2054) and distant future (2055–2100) from CMIP6 climate models.
Key results: We identified bathymetry and sea-surface temperature to be key variables explaining the current and future distribution of coastal finfish and elasmobranchs of the Great Barrier Reef coast in central Queensland.
Conclusions: We showed how the distributions of valuable fisheries species will change under future warming conditions.
Implications: The objective is to inform fisheries management supporting the restructure of existing fisheries or the development of new resources for the dual purposes of conservation and food security.
Keywords: catch per unit effort, climate change, coastal, conservation, estuarine, Great Barrier Reef, habitat-suitability model, tropical.
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