Making management decisions in the face of uncertainty: a case study using the Burdekin catchment in the Great Barrier Reef
P. M. Kuhnert A E , D. E. Pagendam B , R. Bartley C , D. W. Gladish B , S. E. Lewis D and Z. T. Bainbridge D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A CSIRO Data61, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B CSIRO Data61, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.
C CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.
D Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
E Corresponding author. Email: petra.kuhnert@data61.csiro.au
Marine and Freshwater Research 69(8) 1187-1200 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17237
Submitted: 6 August 2017 Accepted: 27 November 2017 Published: 16 April 2018
Abstract
Modelling and monitoring pollutants entering into the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon remain important priorities for the Australian and Queensland governments. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant load delivery to the GBR would: (1) inform decision makers on their ability to meet environmental targets; (2) identify whether additional measurements are required to make confident decisions; and (3) determine whether investments into remediation activities are actually making a difference to water quality and the health of the GBR. Using a case study from the Upper Burdekin catchment where sediment concentrations are the focus, herein we explore and demonstrate different ways of communicating uncertainty to a decision maker. In particular, we show how exceedance probabilities can identify hot spots for future monitoring or remediation activities and how they can be used to inform target setting activities. We provide recommendations for water quality specialists that allow them to make more informed and scientifically defensible decisions that consider uncertainty in both the monitoring and modelling data, as well as allowing the calculation of exceedances from a threshold.
References
Aranda, D., Lopez, J. V., Solo-Gabriele, H. M., and Fleisher, J. M. (2016). Using probabilities of enterococci exceedance and logistic regression to evaluate long term weekly beach monitoring data. Journal of Water and Health 14, 81–89.| Using probabilities of enterococci exceedance and logistic regression to evaluate long term weekly beach monitoring data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Armour, J. D., Hateley, L. R., and Pitt, G. L. (2009). Catchment modelling of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loads with SedNet/ANNEX in the Tully–Murray basin. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, 1091–1096.
| Catchment modelling of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loads with SedNet/ANNEX in the Tully–Murray basin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXhsVWqtLzJ&md5=33de54cffc29b74e5ef0474c7ce0effeCAS |
Bainbridge, Z. T., Lewis, S. E., Smithers, S. G., Kuhnert, P. M., Henderson, B. L., and Brodie, J. E. (2014a). Fine-suspended sediment and water budgets for a large, seasonally dry tropical catchment: Burdekin River catchment Queensland, Australia. Water Resources Research 50, 9067–9087.
| Fine-suspended sediment and water budgets for a large, seasonally dry tropical catchment: Burdekin River catchment Queensland, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bainbridge, Z. T., Lewis, S. E., Smithers, S. G., Kuhnert, P. M., Henderson, B. L., and Brodie, J. E. (2014b). Fine suspended sediment and water budgets for a large, seasonally dry tropical catchment: Burdekin River catchment, Queensland, Australia. Water Resources Research 50, 9067–9087.
| Fine suspended sediment and water budgets for a large, seasonally dry tropical catchment: Burdekin River catchment, Queensland, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bartley, R., Speirs, W. J., Ellis, T. W., and Waters, D. K. (2012). A review of sediment and nutrient concentration data from Australia for use in catchment water quality models. Marine Pollution Bulletin 65, 101–116.
| A review of sediment and nutrient concentration data from Australia for use in catchment water quality models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38XotlOgurk%3D&md5=995d1b7f2a84437fda747da3cf670b42CAS |
Bartley, R., Bainbridge, Z. T., Lewis, S. E., Kroon, F. J., Wilkinson, S. N., Brodie, J. E., and Silburn, D. M. (2014a). Relating sediment impacts on coral reefs to watershed sources, processes and management: a review. The Science of the Total Environment 468–469, 1138–1153.
| Relating sediment impacts on coral reefs to watershed sources, processes and management: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bartley, R., Corfield, J. P., Hawdon, A. A., Kinsey-Henderson, A., Abbott, B., Wilkinson, S. N., and Keen, R. J. (2014b). Can changes to pasture management reduce runoff and sediment loss to the Great Barrier Reef? The results of a 10-year study in the Burdekin catchment, Australia. The Rangeland Journal 36, 67–84.
| Can changes to pasture management reduce runoff and sediment loss to the Great Barrier Reef? The results of a 10-year study in the Burdekin catchment, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bartley, R., Croke, J., Bainbridge, Z. T., Austin, J. M., and Kuhnert, P. M. (2015). Combining contemporary and long-term erosion rates to target erosion hot-spots in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Anthropocene 10, 1–12.
| Combining contemporary and long-term erosion rates to target erosion hot-spots in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Berliner, L. M. (2003). Physical–statistical modelling in geophysics. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 8776–8785.
| Physical–statistical modelling in geophysics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2014). Assessing exceedance of ozone standards: a space–time downscaler for fourth highest ozone concentrations. Environmetrics 25, 279–291.
| Assessing exceedance of ozone standards: a space–time downscaler for fourth highest ozone concentrations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXosFSls7k%3D&md5=8cb37f218322f0aec7584410f1047c1fCAS |
Brodie, J. E., McKergow, L. A., Prosser, I. P., Furnas, M., Hughes, A. O., and Hunter, H. M. (2003). Sources of sediment and nutrient exports to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. ACTFR Report Number 03/11. Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, Australia.
Brodie, J. E., Lewis, S. E., Bainbridge, Z. T., Mitchell, A., Waterhouse, J., and Kroon, F. J. (2009). Target setting for pollutant discharge management of rivers in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, 1141–1149.
| Target setting for pollutant discharge management of rivers in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXhsVWqtLzP&md5=e88a2544477a7f57c35ca4b34603568dCAS |
Brodie, J. E., Lewis, S. E., Wooldridge, S., Bainbridge, Z. T., Waterhouse, J., Honchin, J., Holmes, G., Fabricius, K. E., Collier, C., and Rasheed, M. (2017). Setting ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to meet marine water quality requirements for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia: a preliminary methodology and analysis. Ocean and Coastal Management 143, 136–147.
| Setting ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to meet marine water quality requirements for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia: a preliminary methodology and analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Brooks, S., Gelman, A., Jones, G. L., and Meng, X.-L. (Eds) (2011). ‘Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo’. (Chapman and Hall/CRC: Boca Raton, FL, USA.)
Bunn, S., Abal, E., Smith, M., Choy, S., Fellows, C., Harch, B., Kennard, M., and Sheldon, F. (2010). Integration of science and monitoring of river ecosystem health to guide investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation. Freshwater Biology 55, 223–240.
| Integration of science and monitoring of river ecosystem health to guide investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bureau of Meteorology (2017). Tropical cyclone forecast track maps: GIS compatible format. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/warnings/map.shtml [Verified 8 February 2018].
Burgman, M. A., Carr, A., Godden, L., Gregory, R., McBride, M., Flander, L., and Maguire, L. (2011a). Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment. Conservation Letters 4, 81–87.
| Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burgman, M. A., McBride, M., Ashton, R., Speirs-Bridge, A., Flander, L., Wintle, B., Fidler, F., Rumpff, L., and Twardy, C. (2011b). Expert status and performance. PLoS One 6, e22998.
| Expert status and performance.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtVyksbbJ&md5=befcbe8b83ae112ae282c4928027c3daCAS |
Commonwealth of Australia (2015). ‘Reef 2050 Long-term Sustainability Plan.’ (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra, ACT, Australia.)
Cooper, M., Lewis, S. E., and Smithers, S. G. (2017). The spatial and temporal dynamics of suspended sediment causing persistent turbidity in a large reservoir: Lake Dalrymple, Queensland Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 68, 1377–1390.
| The spatial and temporal dynamics of suspended sediment causing persistent turbidity in a large reservoir: Lake Dalrymple, Queensland Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2sXhtVygtb3O&md5=a93276568403ab0add26899c2988cd4dCAS |
Darnell, R., Henderson, B. L., Kroon, F. J., and Kuhnert, P. M. (2012). Statistical power of detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Pollution Bulletin 65, 203–209.
| Statistical power of detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38XotlOgu7w%3D&md5=1a6958175443312064ae2e09ee8a87a8CAS |
De’ath, G., Fabricius, K. E., Sweatman, H., and Puotinen, M. (2012). The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109, 17995–17999.
| The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38Xhsl2ktbjF&md5=fad883f8afc057c6ff4667327a032e9aCAS |
Denis, D. J. (2017). How statistical thinking should shape the courtroom. The Conversation, 25 April 2017. Available at http://theconversation.com/how-statistical-thinking-should-shape-the-courtroom-74966 [Verified 8 February 2018].
Department of Science, Information, Technology, Innovation and the Arts (2012). Land use summary 1999–2009: Burdekin NRM region. Queensland DSITIA, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Dobbie, M. J., and Clifford, D. (2015). Quantifying uncertainty in environmental indices: an application to an estuarine health index. Marine and Freshwater Research 66, 95–105.
| Quantifying uncertainty in environmental indices: an application to an estuarine health index.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dowd, M., Jones, E., and Parslow, J. (2014). A statistical overview and perspectives on data assimilation for marine biogeochemical models. Environmetrics 25, 203–213.
| A statistical overview and perspectives on data assimilation for marine biogeochemical models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXosFSls7Y%3D&md5=07cc180fb310d1530daa3bfe0ea7be6dCAS |
Faulkner, H., Parker, D., Green, C., and Beven, K. (2007). Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. Ambio 36, 692–704.
| Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fensham, R. J. (1998). The influence of cattle grazing on tree mortality after drought in savanna woodland in north Queensland. Australian Journal of Ecology 23, 405–407.
| The influence of cattle grazing on tree mortality after drought in savanna woodland in north Queensland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fensham, R. J., and Holman, J. E. (1999). Temporal and spatial patterns in drought-related tree dieback in Australian savanna. Journal of Applied Ecology 36, 1035–1050.
| Temporal and spatial patterns in drought-related tree dieback in Australian savanna.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gladish, D. W., Kuhnert, P. M., Pagendam, D. E., Wikle, C. K., Bartley, R., Searle, R. D., Ellis, R. J., Dougall, C., Turner, R. D. R., Lewis, S. E., Bainbridge, Z. T., and Brodie, J. E. (2016). Spatio-temporal assimilation of modelled catchment loads with monitoring data in the Great Barrier Reef. The Annals of Applied Statistics 10, 1590–1618.
| Spatio-temporal assimilation of modelled catchment loads with monitoring data in the Great Barrier Reef.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (2014). Great Barrier Reef outlook report 2014. GBRMPA, Townsville, Qld, Australia.
Guileyardo, J. M. (2015). Probability and uncertainty in clinical and forensic medicine. Proceedings of the Baylor University Medical Center 28, 247–249.
| Probability and uncertainty in clinical and forensic medicine.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Humanes, A., Ricardo, G. F., Willis, B. L., Fabricius, K. E., and Negri, A. P. (2017). Cumulative effects of suspended sediments, organic nutrients and temperature stress on early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. Scientific Reports 7, 44101.
| Cumulative effects of suspended sediments, organic nutrients and temperature stress on early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jarihani, B., Sidle, R. C., Bartley, R., Roth, C. H., and Wilkinson, S. N. (2017). Characterisation of the hydrological response to rainfall at multi spatiotemporal scales in savannas of semi-arid Australia. Water 9, 540.
| Characterisation of the hydrological response to rainfall at multi spatiotemporal scales in savannas of semi-arid Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jones, E., Parslow, J., and Murray, L. (2010). A Bayesian approach to state and parameter estimation in a phytoplankton–zooplankton model. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 59, 7–16.
| A Bayesian approach to state and parameter estimation in a phytoplankton–zooplankton model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kroon, F. J. (2012). Towards ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Pollution Bulletin 65, 261–266.
| Towards ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to the Great Barrier Reef.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38XotlOntLo%3D&md5=1818df02f24274f60e9b7530172727c1CAS |
Kroon, F. J., Kuhnert, P. M., Henderson, B. L., Wilkinson, S. N., Kinsey-Henderson, A., Abbott, B., Brodie, J. E., and Turner, R. D. R. (2012). River loads of suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus and herbicides delivered to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Marine Pollution Bulletin 65, 167–181.
| River loads of suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus and herbicides delivered to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38XotlOntL4%3D&md5=63f46f477ed26ce6edbc4635ee27cc12CAS |
Kroon, F. J., Thorburn, P., Schaffelke, B., and Whitten, S. (2016). Towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef from land-based pollution. Global Change Biology 22, 1985–2002.
| Towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef from land-based pollution.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kuhnert, P. M. (2014). Physical-statistical modelling. Environmetrics 25, 201–202.
| Physical-statistical modelling.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kuhnert, P. M., Kinsey-Henderson, A., Bartley, R., and Herr, A. (2010a). Incorporating uncertainty in gully erosion calculations using the random forests modelling approach. Environmetrics 21, 493–509.
Kuhnert, P. M., Martin, T. G., and Griffiths, S. P. (2010b). A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecology Letters 13, 900–914.
| A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kuhnert, P. M., Henderson, B. L., Lewis, S. E., Bainbridge, Z. T., Wilkinson, S. N., and Brodie, J. E. (2012). Quantifying total suspended sediment export from the Burdekin River catchment using the loads regression estimator tool. Water Resources Research 48, W04533.
| Quantifying total suspended sediment export from the Burdekin River catchment using the loads regression estimator tool.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Leedal, D., Neal, J., Beven, K., Young, P., and Bates, P. (2010). Visualization approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information. Journal of Flood Risk Management 3, 140–150.
| Visualization approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Letcher, R. A., Jakeman, A. J., Calfas, M., Linforth, B., Baginska, B., and Lawrence, I. (2002). A comparison of catchment water quality models and direct estimation techniques. Environmental Modelling & Software 17, 77–85.
| A comparison of catchment water quality models and direct estimation techniques.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martin, T. G., Burgman, M. A., Fidler, F., Kuhnert, P. M., Low-Choy, S., McBride, M., and Mengersen, K. (2012). Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conservation Biology 26, 29–38.
| Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Maslin, M. (2013). Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications for policy. The Geographical Journal 179, 264–271.
| Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications for policy.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Maxwell, S. L., Rhodes, J. R., Runge, M. C., Possingham, H. P., Fei Ng, C., and McDonald-Madden, E. (2015). How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology 52, 12–20.
| How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McCulloch, M., Fallon, S., Wyndham, T., Hendy, E., Lough, J., and Barnes, D. (2003). Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement. Nature 421, 727–730.
| Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXhsV2rsbg%3D&md5=7248c3fa7ecb64b63b07a0f2636ff225CAS |
Morgan, M. G. (2014). Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, 7176–7184.
| Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXnsl2ms7g%3D&md5=70d3555e11ca097e0d5df57bbe7d2201CAS |
Moss, A. J., Rayment, G. E., Reilly, N., and Best, E. K. (1992). A preliminary assessment of sediment and nutrient exports from Queensland coastal catchments. Department of Primary Industries, Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Neil, D. T., and Yu, B. (1996). Fluvial sediment yield to the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon: spatial patterns and the effect of land use. In ‘Downstream Effects of Land Use’. (Eds H. M. Hunter, A. G. Eyles, and G. E. Rayment.) pp. 281–286. (Department of Natural Resources: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.)
Neil, D. T., Orpin, A. R., Ridd, P. V., and Yu, B. (2002). Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Marine and Freshwater Research 53, 733–752.
| Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E., and Rakow, T. (2006). ‘Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities.’ (Wiley: Chichester, UK.)
Pagendam, D. E., Kuhnert, P. M., Leeds, W. B., Wikle, C. K., Bartley, R., and Peterson, E. E. (2014). Assimilating catchment processes with monitoring data to estimate sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef. Environmetrics 25, 214–229.
| Assimilating catchment processes with monitoring data to estimate sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Queensland Audit Office (2015). ‘Managing Water Quality in Great Barrier Reef Catchments.’ (QAO: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.)
Quigley, M. (2012). L’Aquila charges leave earthquake scientists on shaky ground. The Conversation, 25 October 2012. Available at https://theconversation.com/laquila-charges-leave-earthquake-scientists-on-shaky-ground-10301 [Verified 7 February 2018].
Rustomji, P., and Wilkinson, S. N. (2008). Applying bootstrap resampling to quantify uncertainty in fluvial suspended sediment loads estimated using rating curves. Water Resources Research 44, W09435.
| Applying bootstrap resampling to quantify uncertainty in fluvial suspended sediment loads estimated using rating curves.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Slaets, J. I. F., Piepho, H., Schmitter, P., Hilger, T., and Cadisch, G. (2017). Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, 571–588.
| Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
South East Queensland Healthy Waterways Partnership (2007). Annual Report 2006-07. Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
State of Queensland (2013a). Great Barrier Reef Second Report Card 2010. (Reef Water Quality Protection Plan Secretariat: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.) Available at https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/assets/gbr-second-report.pdf [Verified 7 February 2018].
State of Queensland (2013b). Great Barrier Reef Report Card 2011. (Reef Water Quality Protection Plan Secretariat: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.) Available at https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/assets/report-card-2011.pdf [Verified 7 February 2018].
State of Queensland (2014). Great Barrier Reef Report Card 2012 and 2013. (Reef Water Quality Protection Plan Secretariat: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.) Available at https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/assets/report-card-2012-2013.pdf [Verified 7 February 2018].
State of Queensland (2015). Great Barrier Reef Report Card 2014. (Reef Water Quality Protection Plan Secretariat: Brisbane, Qld, Australia.) Available at https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/assets/report-card-2011.pdf [Verified 7 February 2018].
Sutherland, W. J., and Burgman, M. A. (2015). Use experts wisely. Nature 526, 317–318.
| Use experts wisely.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2MXhs1Kqt7bJ&md5=85a1e1b8113fa9f1a00507f673ef2054CAS |
Tversky, A., and Kahnerman, D. (1974). Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131.
| Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3cvls12ruw%3D%3D&md5=72c5aebdec194cc18aab6943d1acac2cCAS |
University of Maryland Centre for Environmental Science (2016). Chesapeake Bay Report Card 2015. (Integration & Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science) Available at https://ecoreportcard.org/site/assets/files/1627/2015-chesapeake-bay-report-card.pdf [Verified 7 February 2018].
Wikle, C. K., Berliner, L. M., and Cressie, N. (1998). Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 5, 117–154.
| Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wilkinson, S. N., Dougall, C., Kinsey-Henderson, A., Searle, R. D., Ellis, R. J., and Bartley, R. (2014). Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins. The Science of the Total Environment 468–469, 1210–1224.
| Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Williams, M., Longstaff, B., Buchanan, C., Llanso, R., and Dennison, W. (2009). Development and evaluation of a spatially explicit index of Chesapeake Bay health. Marine Pollution Bulletin 59, 14–25.
| Development and evaluation of a spatially explicit index of Chesapeake Bay health.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXitFSgs70%3D&md5=f75b62c2d72ecee45735d283e734ba56CAS |
