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Australian Energy Producers Journal Australian Energy Producers Journal Society
Journal of Australian Energy Producers
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Non peer reviewed)

Aligning stars: making LNG imports happen in Australia

Kaushal Ramesh A * and Krishan Pal Birda B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Rystad Energy, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

B Rystad Energy, Perth, WA, Australia.




Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages their published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of refined products and LNG, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific, as well as advising spot cargo traders, LNG contracting, and investment decisions as a market analyst.



Krishan Pal Birda is a Senior Analyst who leads Rystad Energy’s Australasia Upstream Research & Analysis team. In addition to monitoring regional activity in Australasia and among E&P companies, he oversees the Australasia Solutions product. His other responsibilities include publishing frequent analyses, product development, and assisting clients on expert matters. Krishan specialises in the Australian gas & LNG markets as well as Coal Seam Gas modelling. He has been employed with Rystad Energy for over 5 years and has a background in Civil Engineering.

* Correspondence to: kaushal.ramesh@rystadenergy.com

Australian Energy Producers Journal 64 S576-S580 https://doi.org/10.1071/EP23250
Accepted: 3 April 2024  Published: 16 May 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of Australian Energy Producers.

Abstract

We present the inputs and results of a discounted cash flow model which details the requirements for an import terminal to eventualise. The key requirement is high certainty cash flows from foundation users. This can be made possible through capacity booking which can be potentially underwritten by governments to ensure security of supply during peak winter months. The out-chartering of the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) to serve as a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier during the peak northern winter will provide an additional revenue source. We also analyse the legacy supply decline and various price setting mechanisms for the southern states which will soon turn net importers. We will describe the status of the four projects in the pipeline and identify milestones. We conclude that an import terminal provides an alternative proposition in the southern states considering the highly seasonal demand profile, the decline of Gippsland Basin production, and the relative inflexibility of coal seam gas. Further, FSRUs can be redeployed to other regions, which reduces stranded asset risk from pipeline expansions, given Australia’s net zero targets.

Keywords: Australia, demand, FSRU, gas, imports, LNG, peaking, winter.

Biographies

EP23250_B1.gif

Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages their published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of refined products and LNG, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific, as well as advising spot cargo traders, LNG contracting, and investment decisions as a market analyst.

EP23250_B2.gif

Krishan Pal Birda is a Senior Analyst who leads Rystad Energy’s Australasia Upstream Research & Analysis team. In addition to monitoring regional activity in Australasia and among E&P companies, he oversees the Australasia Solutions product. His other responsibilities include publishing frequent analyses, product development, and assisting clients on expert matters. Krishan specialises in the Australian gas & LNG markets as well as Coal Seam Gas modelling. He has been employed with Rystad Energy for over 5 years and has a background in Civil Engineering.

References

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