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Australian Energy Producers Journal Australian Energy Producers Journal Society
Journal of Australian Energy Producers
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Non peer reviewed)

Goldilocks dilemma: lower cost, more supply, reduced emissions, and reliable trading partner. What is the outlook for Australia getting the gas balance just right?

Matt Paull A *
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A EnergyQuest, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.




Matt Paull joined EnergyQuest in December 2022 and has over 25 years’ experience in government and the oil and gas industry. Matt has deep knowledge of the energy industry and worked for Australia’s peak body for oil and gas, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, for over a decade where he led representation of Queensland’s A$80 billion oil and gas industry before government, media, and the broader community. Prior to working in the industry, Matt had a successful career with the Australian Government where he held senior positions in resources and energy policy development, investment facilitation, science and technology support, international relations, finance, and economic analysis. Matt has a Bachelor of Economics from the Australian National University and a Graduate Certificate in Finance and Investment from the Financial Services Institute of Australasia.

* Correspondence to: mpaull@energyquest.com.au

Australian Energy Producers Journal 64 S567-S570 https://doi.org/10.1071/EP23149
Accepted: 12 March 2024  Published: 16 May 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of Australian Energy Producers.

Abstract

Australia’s east and west coast domestic gas markets are physically and geographically separated. Each Australian gas market has followed a different trajectory, with the west being defined by large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, a relatively small domestic market, and a long-standing domestic gas reservation that historically ensured the domestic market was oversupplied and prices remained low. The east coast market instead relied for decades on supply from the Cooper and Gippsland basins which only supplied the domestic market, with both now in decline. The establishment of LNG export capacity in Queensland connected the east coast market to international markets for the first time and was followed by bans and moratoriums on gas development in some jurisdictions. Notwithstanding their very different history, both markets now face potential domestic supply shortages within a decade, and both have experienced government intervention in the past 12 months. Government’s stated aims are to lower prices, ensure ongoing investment in supply, reduce emissions, and continue LNG exports. This paper examines forecast supply and demand, the impact of government intervention, net zero policies and the importance of maintaining Australia’s export reputation as a reliable supplier. Getting this balance just right will require a challenging ‘Goldilocks moment’, with serious consequences if we get it wrong.

Keywords: domestic gas, domestic market, domestic supply, government intervention, government policy, government regulation, LNG exports, net zero, supply and demand.

Biographies

EP23149_B1.gif

Matt Paull joined EnergyQuest in December 2022 and has over 25 years’ experience in government and the oil and gas industry. Matt has deep knowledge of the energy industry and worked for Australia’s peak body for oil and gas, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, for over a decade where he led representation of Queensland’s A$80 billion oil and gas industry before government, media, and the broader community. Prior to working in the industry, Matt had a successful career with the Australian Government where he held senior positions in resources and energy policy development, investment facilitation, science and technology support, international relations, finance, and economic analysis. Matt has a Bachelor of Economics from the Australian National University and a Graduate Certificate in Finance and Investment from the Financial Services Institute of Australasia.

References

Department of Industry, Science and Resources (2023) Resources and energy quarterly: September 2023. Available at https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2023

EnergyQuest (2023a) East Coast Gas Outlook 2023. Available at https://www.energyquest.com.au/new-east-coast-gas-outlook-2023/

EnergyQuest (2023b) West Coast Gas Outlook 2023. Available at https://www.energyquest.com.au/new-west-coast-gas-outlook-2023/

Inpex (2023) Ueda-san Speech, Parliament House Canberra. Speech, 30 March. Available at https://www.au.emb-japan.go.jp/files/100483933.pdf

International Energy Agency (2023) World Energy Outlook 2023. Available at https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023