Are Australian carbon prices sufficient to support decarbonisation in gas production?
Daniel Lorng Yon Wong A * and Prabhat Agrawal AA
Daniel Wong is a Senior Consultant at GaffneyCline based in Singapore, with over 12 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, with roles ranging from reservoir engineering to downhole equipment design and testing. At GaffneyCline, Daniel is heavily involved in CO2 storage resource assessments per the SRMS and hydrocarbon resource assessments per the PRMS. Daniel holds a PhD in Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University, where his research was sponsored by Total. He also holds a PgDip in Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University, and a BEng in Mechanical Engineering from the National University of Singapore. Daniel is first author of multiple papers as well as a book chapter, and is a listed inventor on several patents. |
Prabhat Agrawal, CFA, is a Senior Advisor at GaffneyCline based in Singapore. He has over 22 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, from technical, commercial, and strategic assignments within Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. He is experienced in asset valuation, energy project planning, and energy markets. In recent assignments, he provided advice on energy transition planning, such as setting up CCS business and policy, carbon emissions accounting, and the impact of energy transition on valuation. Prabhat is qualified in chemical engineering (BTech & MEng), finance (MSc in Financial Eng. and CFA), and project management (PMP). He is a member of AIEN and CFA Institute. |
Abstract
Recent years have seen a rapid increase in the push for energy transition in Australia. Carbon prices have been introduced through the Safeguard Mechanism and Australian Carbon Credit Units. Consumers of hydrocarbon products are beginning to demand carbon neutral products. Oil and gas operators are pledging net-zero emissions targets. The decarbonisation efforts that ensue are expected to drive a paradigm shift in upstream development approaches. In this work, we investigate how an anonymised high carbon dioxide (CO2) gas field may be developed under prevailing carbon prices. We identify three project archetypes and estimate economically recoverable resources under each project; we also analyse the economic performance of each project. In the first archetype, we consider a project where CO2 is separated from the produced gas and vented into the atmosphere. In the second archetype, we consider a carbon sequestration project in which CO2 is transported via pipeline for storage in an onshore depleted gas reservoir. Lastly, we consider a case in which the gas buyer demands a fully carbon neutral product; as such, we study the feasibility of producing blue hydrogen using the produced gas, and how this impacts project economics and reserves. The case studies quantify by how much decarbonisation efforts negatively impact project economics and how they are the least objectionable when carbon prices are high. The analysis shows that carbon prices in Australia are currently sufficient to enable commercial development in ideal situations, but need to be higher to enable wider decarbonisation.
Keywords: carbon storage, CCS, commercial, decarbonisation, emissions, gas, hydrogen.
Daniel Wong is a Senior Consultant at GaffneyCline based in Singapore, with over 12 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, with roles ranging from reservoir engineering to downhole equipment design and testing. At GaffneyCline, Daniel is heavily involved in CO2 storage resource assessments per the SRMS and hydrocarbon resource assessments per the PRMS. Daniel holds a PhD in Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University, where his research was sponsored by Total. He also holds a PgDip in Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University, and a BEng in Mechanical Engineering from the National University of Singapore. Daniel is first author of multiple papers as well as a book chapter, and is a listed inventor on several patents. |
Prabhat Agrawal, CFA, is a Senior Advisor at GaffneyCline based in Singapore. He has over 22 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, from technical, commercial, and strategic assignments within Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. He is experienced in asset valuation, energy project planning, and energy markets. In recent assignments, he provided advice on energy transition planning, such as setting up CCS business and policy, carbon emissions accounting, and the impact of energy transition on valuation. Prabhat is qualified in chemical engineering (BTech & MEng), finance (MSc in Financial Eng. and CFA), and project management (PMP). He is a member of AIEN and CFA Institute. |
References
Clean Energy Regulator (2023a) About the ACCU Scheme. Retrieved from https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/About-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund
Clean Energy Regulator (2023b) Safeguard Mechanism Credit units. Retrieved from https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-Safeguard-Mechanism/The-Safeguard-Mechanism-for-financial-years-commencing-on-or-after-1-July-2023/Safeguard-Mechanism-credit-units
European Commission (2023) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Retrieved from https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en
Society of Petroleum Engineers (2018) ‘Petroleum Resources Management System.’ (SPE) Available at https://www.spe.org/en/industry/reserves/
The World Bank (2023) Carbon Pricing Dashboard. Retrieved from https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/
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