Concurrent 13. Oral Presentation for: Energy transition risk for Australia’s LNG: how to build up resilience for a low-carbon future
Olga Savenkova A *A Rystad Energy, Oslo, Norway.
The APPEA Journal 63 - https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ22345
Published: 2 June 2023
Abstract
Presented on Wednesday 17 May: Session 13
Global gas demand is expected to surge 12.5% in the next 8 years, from about 4 trillion cubic meters (Tcm) this year to around 4.5 Tcm in 2030. Demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to soar about 30% by 2030. Many countries, particularly in the European Union (EU), will look to diversify away from Russian gas supplies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is set to play a major role in plugging some of this supply gap – compared to 2021 levels, Europe’s LNG demand increased 60% to 123 million tonnes in 2022. There is no doubt that LNG suppliers with the lowest costs and emissions will stay in demand for longer, as buyers everywhere are not only looking for the cheapest volumes but also for supply with the lowest carbon footprint. In this paper, Rystad Energy benchmarks the carbon intensity of LNG exports from Australia to major Asian markets against other exporters to see how carbon-competitive Australia’s LNG is across the entire value chain: from upstream to regasification. We also take a closer look at specific LNG projects and estimate how much of the value might be at risk due to lower commodity prices and CO2 cost adoption. This type of analysis breaks down the complexity of energy transition risk for the Australian LNG market, allowing companies to implement risk mitigation plans at the earlier stages of the market’s evolution towards a low-carbon future.
To access the Oral Presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here
Keywords: Australia, carbon price, carbon competitiveness, commodity prices, emissions intensity, energy transition risk, liquefied natural gas, net present value.
Olga Savenkova is a Senior Analyst in the Sustainability team at Rystad Energy, where she is responsible for the analysis of global oil and gas energy transition trends. Her focus areas are portfolio investments, corporate sustainability, resilience and strategy analysis of oil and gas players. Olga has more than 8 years’ experience within the oil and gas market. Predominantly she worked on strategic development and risk management for oil and gas companies and was directly involved in strategy-making, risk identification and evaluation processes. |
