Is hydrogen Asia’s new energy commodity? Opportunities and challenges for Australia
David Low A E , Angus Rodger B E , Benjamin Gallagher C E and Prakash Sharma D EA Wood Mackenzie, Level 1, London House, 216 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000, Australia.
B Wood Mackenzie, 3 Church Street, #29-01 Samsung Hub, Singapore 049483.
C Wood Mackenzie, 2 Liberty Square, Boston, MA 02109, USA.
D Wood Mackenzie, 3 Church Street, #29-01 Samsung Hub, Singapore 049483.
E Corresponding authors. Email: david.low@woodmac.com; angus.rodger@woodmac.com; benjamin.gallagher@woodmac.com; prakash.sharma@woodmac.com
The APPEA Journal 60(2) 468-472 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ19168
Accepted: 26 February 2020 Published: 15 May 2020
Abstract
Can hydrogen really be the next big energy disruptor? The technological challenges are significant and have suppressed its presence in the energy transition story thus far, but this is changing fast. The hydrogen market faces a chicken-and-egg conundrum. Demand growth remains limited, hindered by uncertainty over supply and cost. But investment in hydrogen supply is restricted by ambiguity over its role in the future energy mix. Nonetheless, government policy and funding in Japan, China and Korea is creating new demand centres. Will the breakthrough be in power generation, transportation or energy storage? The costs associated with hydrogen production and transportation are its biggest hurdles. But new technologies around liquid organic hydrogen carriers and ammonia are emerging. How is this hydrogen+ philosophy evolving, and could it be a future competitive advantage? Over the past decade, we have already seen how new technology has rapidly reduced other renewable energy costs. We outline our view on whether the same could happen with hydrogen. So, where does Australia fit into this picture, and what is its competitive advantage? Australia is well endowed with natural resources, many of which can reliably generate renewable energy. And with numerous ongoing hydrogen pilot programs, it is uniquely positioned to innovate and export green hydrogen know-how. Can Australia become the global laboratory for hydrogen supply-chain technology? Local upstream companies could be catalysts for change, given their existing producer–supplier relationships across north-eastern Asia. What role could hydrogen play in the future upstream portfolio?
Keywords: blue hydrogen, decarbonisation, electrolyser, energy transition, green hydrogen, H2, hydrogen council, hydrogen economy, hydrogen government policies, renewable energy.
David Low joined Wood Mackenzie in February 2018 and is the Australasian Upstream Lead Analyst. His key focus is on project economics, industry trends and corporate strategy. He has also participated in several consulting projects around the Australian east coast gas market, corporate strategy and opportunity screening. Prior to Wood Mackenzie, he held an Analyst position at Willis Towers Watson in the asset consulting division. He was responsible for fund manager research and providing portfolio construction advice to institutional clients. He also worked at Chevron Australia for c. 4 years in reservoir and drilling engineering. David attained a double Bachelor Degree in Petroleum Engineering(Hons) and Commerce from the University of Western Australia. He has also completed his CFA Level 1. |
Angus Rodger is a Research Director in Wood Mackenzie's Asia–Pacific upstream research team, based in Singapore. He has been the global lead and author of Wood Mackenzie’s benchmark analysis of global pre-FID and deep-water projects, including studies on cost deflation and project evolution. He has participated in a wide range of consulting projects for IOCs and NOCs, including new business development, M&A, regional basin screening and gas development. He joined WM’s Southeast Asia upstream research team in May 2008, and, subsequently, moved to Perth in 2013 to become the senior analyst in WM’s Australasia upstream research team. Prior to WM, he worked in the upstream industry for 5 years, covering the North Sea, West Africa and Southeast Asia. Angus holds a BA(Hons) degree in Politics with International Relations from the University of Warwick. |
Ben Gallagher is a subject-matter expert in carbon and emerging technology for Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Practice. Ben launched a proprietary analysis of the green hydrogen production and cost landscape, investment and vendors in October 2019, and a project detailing costs and policy landscapes for carbon-as-a-technology in January 2020. Prior to this role, Ben was a senior solar analyst specialising in PV systems and balance-of-system components, as well as cost declines. Before joining Wood Mackenzie, Ben worked in China and the USA in cleantech manufacturing and for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Ben holds a Master of Science degree in International Environmental Policy, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, USA, and Bachelor of Arts in East Asian studies, Skidmore College, USA. |
Prakash Sharma has over 25 years of experience in energy and metals and mining and climate-change policy developments, ranging from change management to business strategy and commodity markets. He joined Wood Mackenzie in 2006 and is currently based in Singapore. He leads integrated analysis, energy transition and cross-commodity discussions in Asia–Pacific. He has presented to board and senior-level management teams, as well as at major industry conferences. Previously, Prakash spent 2 years in Beijing as head of China research, guiding a team of analysts on China’s energy and economic trends, including supply-side reforms, inter-fuel competition and commodity prices. He has also led global coal-markets analysis for 5 years, delivering research on decarbonisation policies, impact of renewables, alternative scenarios and evolving patterns of supply and demand. Prior to joining Wood Mackenzie, Prakash had extensive experience in the natural-resources sector, including export–import of bulks and ferrous commodities for an established Canadian trading firm. He has also spent 9 years in the mining industry, specialising in business improvement, international sourcing and ISO 9001 certification. Prakash is a Mining Engineer with an MBA from the International Management Institute in India. |
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