The scalability challenge: pathways to future decarbonisation and the impact on the oil and gas industry

Abstract

How will the global energy system move sharply towards a pathway compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030? Despite great efforts on cost reductions in renewables, alternative technologies, advanced transportation and supportive government policies, progress to date is not enough. The challenge is now one of scalability. Although some technologies required for a 2°C future are economic and proven, many others are not. Optimists look at the cost of solar and wind and say we have all we need to achieve our targets. The reality is that significant additional investment is needed to get them to material scale, globally. And too often huge challenges are downplayed in sectors beyond power and transport, including industry, aviation, shipping, heating and agriculture. Given the criticality of climate change, these multiple challenges must now be addressed. Consequently, any accelerated pace of decarbonisation represents an existential challenge to the oil and gas industry, including in Australia. If companies are to remain investible through the long term, all will need to transition to business models that are aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. This paper considers what the path to decarbonisation could look like and how oil and gas companies must respond in order to prosper through the energy transition.