Simplicity from complexity

Abstract

Joseph Tainter suggests that empires collapsed because they became too complex. In early days, the order (and complexity) the rule of empire brought was positive; the law of diminishing returns reduced the marginal value until it disappeared completely. Tainter says collapse is a natural simplification.

Peter Drucker describes a clear trend of growth in management throughout the 20^th century and pursuit of risk avoidance through increased control. Moore's Law and Wirth's Law describe the growth in information technology though the 21^st century. The work of Edward Hess suggests few companies have grown in excess of GDP for extended periods, yet the markets demand growth.

This extended abstract introduces the contagion of complexity to describe the cumulative effect of management growth, IT growth, and the pursuit of growth above GDP.

There is a need to identify when the value of complexity turns negative, and to innovate before companies experience deterioration in productivity. Industry is now producing more, but at the same time its complexity is increasing.

The common denominator of best practice is all about making things simpler, enabling competent people to do their job with a minimum level of bureaucracy. When IT was introduced it seemed to promise to allow people to work less and have a better work-life balance. If that promise is to be believed, and IT is to be used effectively to enable performance instead of control performance, there is still time to simplify and avoid the point of negative inflexion.