Exposure to weather risk: a new information paradigm

Abstract

When forecasting the weather, simple outcome statements do not always adequately describe what could eventuate for a particular location.

Importantly, some weather situations are finely balanced and cannot be forecast five days in advance; sometimes forecasting 24 hours ahead is difficult, particularly if tropical cyclones are present.

To address these weather forecasting complexities, the Bureau of Meteorology is moving towards providing more probability-based guidance, such as more information on potential rainfall ranges, wind speed probabilities, wave height probabilities, tropical cyclone formation risk and potential tropical cyclone tracks.

For response planning purposes these changes will bring their own challenges. For example, previous chances of a tropical cyclone impact have been described with yes or no forecasts. In the future, these risks could be described in percentages. Responding to a 5% risk suggests that 19 out of 20 responses could be perceived to be unnecessary, while on the other hand not responding to a 5% risk could be assessed as dangerous.

Developing these new information types is only part of the process. To achieve better practice, it will also be critical to create presentation strategies that express the content in a usable manner, work with clients so they gain maximum benefit from the guidance, and enable clients to develop response plans that are aligned with the forecasts.

The Bureau of Meteorology is seeking to work in a closer partnership with the resource sector on this to help maximise operational efficiencies, while ensuring a safe working environment.