Pricing prospects for global LNG and Australian gas markets

Abstract

Global LNG pricing outlook: Liquidity in the global LNG spot market is increasing and the industry is seeking price diversification in its supply contracts. The rationale for oil linkage is being challenged. Short-term trade now accounts for a quarter of the total market, and the US’ Henry Hub, the UK’s NBP and global LNG spot indices are all used in LNG price indexation. Growth in LNG supplies, short-term trade, and operational flexibility will drive global price connectivity and increase transparency. The US will begin exporting LNG, tightening the price differential between Atlantic and Pacific basins. The LNG industry will continue to question the validity of oil-price linkage as it seeks a reliable reference capable of reflecting supply and demand fundamentals in the gas markets themselves. It is, however, important to recognise that gas-to-gas pricing will not automatically deliver cheaper LNG than equivalent oil-index formulas.

East coast Australia gas pricing outlook: Dynamics in Australian east coast gas markets are changing rapidly, with LNG at the heart of this revolution. The east coast gas industry seeks a deeper, more liquid and transparent market, while looking to international gas hubs for lessons in boosting market efficiency. The industry must address challenges such as gas storage and pipeline capacity if it is to have the flexibility needed to build a vibrant market. Oil-indexed LNG netback pricing is starting to work its way into east coast gas supply contracts; however, as the European gas industry moves away from oil indexation, Australia’s domestic gas market needs to look at alternative pricing structures.